In Europe, we have one emerging international crisis which hasn’t so far got the media coverage it deserves. The tendency of Russia to use raw material supplies (oil and gas) as a political weapon is a well-known and documented phenomenon in Ukraine and the Baltic states. Now the former “big brother” is using financial blackmailing also against Belarus, where the autocratic dictator Lukashenka isn’t following his master’s voice carefully enough.
In the following three articles from the Belarusian Human Rights defenders’ web site Charter 97, which is a publication having admirable journalistic qualities.
The first article is an excerpt from the official organ of Lukashenka’s administration, “Sovetskaya Belorussiya”, in which Lukashenka describes his views on the conflict and his fear that Russia is creating another Chechnya in Belarus.
The second article includes some analysis of the cost of Russia to support Lukashenka’s kolkhoz-based economy.
The third article describes some “guesstimate” of Russian journalists about the condition which will allow Belarusian milk to return to the Russian market. Due to health considerations, the Russian government recently stopped importation of Belarusian milk products to Russia. Well, since the import ban on Georgian wines, this is the first public anxiety of the Kremlin regarding the neglected health crisis in Russia, which has produced an average length of life in Russia which can be compared only to the situation in some African nations.
Both sides shall be heard, thus the fourth article is an interview with Russia’s ambassador in Minsk. “I wish there were more freedom of speech both in Russia and in Belarus”.
The fifth article is a short release from Itar-Tass, telling that the construction work on Baltic Pipeline System-2 (BPS-2) has started. This oil pipeline will bypass Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States. However, a disadvantage is that in a few years 50 million tons of oil will be shipped from the sea port Ust-Luga to the world market - increasing dangerous tanker traffic on the Baltic Sea to unseen levels. The environmental effects are not a element of Russian economic calculations, as it never was in the Soviet Union. The consequences of this scenario are such, that Finns are investing almost as much in cleaning sewage from St.Petersburg as the Kremlin protégé Abramovich is spending on buying English football teams and luxury private yachts.
Finland and Estonia should extend their maritime border in the Gulf of Finland, in order to give tools for protecting the Baltic Sea.
Mikael Storsjö
Lukashenka to Russians: “There will be another Chechnya for you here”
The Belarusian dictator has given an interview to “Izvestiya” and “Zavtra” newspapers, and “Rossiyskaya Federatsiya segodnya” and “Soyuznoe gosudarstvo” magazines. However, this interview hasn’t been published in Russia yet.
Today the official organ of Lukashenka’s administration, “Sovetskaya Belorussiya”, has published from this interview. We would like to present most interesting quotes.
“Allies” have deceived
“We have been building our relations with the Russian Federation seriously. Very seriously. Russia looks simply pale against this background… I would like to mention one fact. We held a referendum, a nation-wide referendum on the “union” of Belarus and Russia. It was not easy for us then. All that “nationalistic” hysteria, all this frenzy was still alive then, kind of “we can live here, by ourselves, and everything would be fine”. Certainly, by my nature and capabilities under the constitution I could define how to build relations with the Russian Federation even without a referendum. But I wanted to show the whole world, Russians and our people, what the real state of the Belarusian society is. And I asked people to come to the referendum. And then I was asked everywhere, what was my position. I wasn’t concealing it at all. My position is unshakable. But Russia had to yield in some aspects. In which aspects? You have gas, oil, nuclear weapons and other things. Russia is a huge country, it’s it resources, and it has certain gainings from that. Now they have imposed such tariffs that Belarusians selling their tractor to Kazakhstan have to pay one more cost of the tractor,” the Belarusian leader stated.
He has also noted that “as soon as Putin took office of the president for the first time, his first act was exchange of ratification instruments”.
“It means that Mr Putin took for granted that Agreement prepared by us with the previous president of Russia, and undertook to adhere to it… take this agreement and look through it, read it, there is almost everything in it that should be in a constitution. Everything is defined: spheres under the jurisdiction of the “union state”, and spheres of the parts of this “union state” Russia and Belarus, and so on, and so forth. And it was written in the end that we should hold referenda in Belarus and Russia simultaneously, and to approve the Constitution of our future “union state” at a referendum. What’s bad in that? There is nothing bad in it. And that Constitution would define everything: spheres of jurisdiction were to be allocated, and it is allocated in the Agreement now too, and so secret international agreements have priority over internal legislation… It was to include the single currency, government organs, and spheres of authority, that is, everything that should be in a constitution. We were to hold that in the beginning of the century. Why haven’t we done that? You think that Belarus didn’t want it, or Lukashenka was the worst enemy of integration? No, Russia didn’t want that…” the dictator reproached.
Speaking about the present, Lukashenka noted that actions of the Russian side are inconsistent with the idea of the “union state, common market, uniform business climate”. “Today’s Russia has in fact closed the market for Belarusian goods,” A. Lukashenka stated. – “Why have you closed your market for our tractors, cars, when a farmer says: give me a Belarusian MTZ tractor, we have been working at them all our life, and it suits us? Give it to us! And banks say to them: no, you won’t be granted a credit to buy Belarusian goods. The question suggests itself: why have you done that? Who needs such a “union state”?
The Belarusian ruler disclosed some details of the recent talks in Minsk: “Our Premier referred to facts when speaking to Putin. When we started to ask questions to him, I was sitting just like an arbiter. And two prime-ministers, the three of us there, were sitting and debating. And Sidorski asked [Putin]: “Why have you closed the market? Why have you disrupted goods exchanges between Belarus and Russia? Why have you banned deliveries of our goods?” and Putin answers: that’s not true. And Sidorski gives his information: “So-and-so governor said: “Putin said that if we would buy anything Belarusian, I’ll eat your head off”. The governor certainly has fear. He says: “We would take this with pleasure, but we want some approval signal, at least orally”. So two orders of the Ministry of Economic Development [of the Russian Federation] appeared, a decision of the government and through banks it was said in fact that if you want to buy something in our country, you won’t be given a loan in Russia. That’s all. They seem not to prohibit anything: okay, bring and sell. But the scheme “I take a loan, buy and then reimburse” has been violated.
The Belarusian side is also puzzled by the present situation with supply of provisions. “They also want to limit deliveries of cheap food agricultural production, and they have found motivation, that we are supporting the agriculture in Belarus, so our prices are lower,” Lukashenka noted. “Well, you could support agriculture in Russia too. We are not hiding”.
Lukashenka stated that protectionism in Russian market exists: “Your prices for sugar went up by almost 40% recently. When I read that, I was shocked. Guys, it’s a crime against your own nation. Why have you closed your market for our sugar? Why? If there was enough sugar in the market, the price would be different… Today we have lost half of the market of the Russian Federation. If it were not for the dictatorship in Belarus, we would have to close tow plants in Belarus. Recently I had to take truly administrative measures: I invited the government and said: “If you won’t sell sugar, you will lose your job”. We have found other markets. We have sold this sugar… What for have I given this example? For you to understand that the same happens in all positions vitally important for our country. In this way we have been pushed out from the Russian market and made to sell in other markets… Well, it wouldn’t be so hurtful if you had your own surplus of goods. But you didn’t have ones!”
About “Eastern Partnership”
Representatives of Russian media asked Lukashenka to explain Belarus’ participation in the Eastern Partnership Program of the European Union and to comment on concerns of some Russian politicians and political analysts that Belarus allegedly has chosen the Western direction.
“Somebody has said that Eastern Partnership is bad, it’s anti-Russian “Eastern Partnership”. I do not know. Maybe there are some intentions there. But I ask a question: today we trade with the European Union. 47% with you, I think, and45% or 43% with them… And we have external surplus there, can you imagine? We have minus with Russia, as energy resources imported by us, component parts, raw materials from Russia are very expensive for us. That is why we have negative trade balance with the Russian Federation. Russia does not want to balance it, even forcing us out from the market of the goods we export there. And you understand that we need not only selling the goods, but we are to earn Russian rubles. Then we are to convert them into dollars and buy oil and gas from you. If you would push us away from there, we won’t be able to pay. And once again the pipe could be shut off. You should understand, that’s the threat… to stop, freeze life here”.
At the same time Lukashenka underlined that Minsk does not view the Eastern Partnership as a substitution to the “union state” project. “When the question came up, Solana was here, we had discussions with him… and when I was asked about Russia and such, we argued and argued, and then I said: “Will you replace Russia for us?” – “No, no, no”. – “So why do you confront us with such a question?!” I asked a pragmatic question… “You won’t substitute for them. Moreover, I said, you should bear in mind that we are one nation. We think in the way Russians think. We live the way they live. We have the same values…” He understood that.”
About recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
To the question when recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Minsk could take place, Lukashenka said: “You say that it is a painful story and a sensitive question. But all leaders of Russia are saying to me: “It is unrelated. It would be good if you recognize them, and well and good if you won’t.” Firstly, it is not a question for Russia. We may recognize, or we may not recognize now, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow. Comparing with the situation around Belarus it is not the main thing. But we understand that this recognition wouldn’t be superfluous for Russia. However, I often say that we have our own history of relations with these republics, primarily with Abkhazia. We have had almost no such relations with Ossetia, though we met with their people and so on. That’s my position… By the way, when we all gathered in the framework of the CIS, everybody said to Medvedev: “No, we have our own problems”. I was the last to deliver a speech, and I said: “If you do not want to recognize them, do not look for motivation under the table. You simply do not want, you fear and so on.” Ask Medvedev, ask him about my position. I told the Russian leadership in which way we are to solve this problem. They didn’t have more questions. However… It has come to a point where they arrived as said: if you recognize Abkhazia and Ossetia, $500 millions are yours. You know, we do not want to “sell” any questions and any positions. Moreover, we have agreed with the leader of Abkhazia Bagapsh, we met with Kokojty after that. They do not have to us. They understand our position”.
Grievance over non-granted loans
“They have given us… first a billion. You know, they did that grudgingly, and now in your mass media one can read: “These paupers go begging, we have a difficult situation here, and they are soliciting for money”. After reading that one does not want to live. I think: well, what do we need this billion for? We have devaluated the national currency by 20%, and we could have devaluated it by 21%, and thus we could find a way out,” Alyaksandr Lukashenka comments the problematic questions related to issuing Russian credits to Russia. “They offered 2 billions, and gave a billion. Then… one has to go to the Duma, we need to go there, but it’s so hard… I say: “Alright, ok”. I say that to Putin. Medvedev says: “No problem. We will help you again”. When the turn of the government comes, Putin says: “No, it’s too difficult”. “All right, Mr Putin, you shouldn’t give it if it’s hard”… We addressed the Duma, and they approved and gave $500 million. Now they promise to give the rest $500 in April. So mush time has passed… We have entered that in the budget, we hoped and asked nobody else for this money. «No, we won’t give”… We went to Chinese – [and the result is] $3 billion”.
Belarusians are to defend independence in arms
As said by Lukashenka, the idea which is popular in Russia that Belarus should become a part of the Russian Federation is supported by politicians who do not want to see possible dramatic consequences of such a decision.
“We, leaders, should figure out in advance consequences of that. Even me, for instance, adopt a decision, and what will happen tomorrow? Are there few conflicts in the Caucasus? Now Russia is “bombarded” for having suppressed, subdued in an imperial way, with arms… And what’s here? The Russian president says from this point of view: “Yes, you are absolutely right… It is absolutely detrimental for Russia.” On the other hand, our “frostbitten heads”, though there may be not many of them, 2, or say, 3%, but they are the most active and ambitious, far most crazy in any society. They are ready to launch “a war of national liberation”. They need a pretext. Now everybody is laughing at it. And you think they do not have with what to fight, don’t you? The next day they would be delivered that from Ukraine, the Baltic States, they mostly get everything from there, and they have channels from Poland. Arms and blasts will appear immediately, they will destabilize the situation, and many people in the society would think: “it’s our land, we won’t give it away to anyone,” and they would go, “it’s win all, or lose all”. They are the spitting image of Russians. Do you want one more Chechnya here? I do not want it”.
“10 millions of people who are standing like a shield in front of Moscow, - should it be for free?..”
“Speaking about defence: don’t you think this vector is not important for you? With the present position of Ukraine, the Baltic States and so on?” Lukashenka asked. “You have this as the only “window”, “balcony”… The balcony of “Bagration” operation has remained. Thousands of kilometres. It’s not little. Anyway you have to control this space. Even not for the sake of a war, but for knowing what’s going on. And look what they are doing near our borders… You say: “Near Russian borders”. It happens near our, Belarusian borders. But you are saying it correctly, that it’s a Russian interest. Planes are standing near the border. You should be taken there, and our border guards and intelligence would show you: all objects are pictured, including watch towers and the most modern systems of reconnaissance. They see everything up to the Kremlin. So don’t you need Belarus? Is it indifferent to you? It is important for you. Who is performing this function, an important function now? Belarus, its air defence, army and so on. Do you think they should do that for free? Do you believe that 10 millions of people who are forming a shield in front of Moscow now should be for free? It is beyond price… And I am said: “you know, we have calculated… 2 billions of loan [would be given to you]… Dear friends, over a year and a half you have pumped out 10 billion dollars from Belarus by having advanced gas prices thrice. And you have granted me 2 billions at crazy interest, while the IMF gave a credit which terms are three times more beneficial!”
Discussing the topic of defence, journalists asked Lukashenka how the creation of the Russian-Belarusian air defence is proceeding. Are there problems in this sphere?
“Yes, we have signed this agreement, and Russia was “crying blue murder”… We were warned by the US citizens and Europeans: air defence is the issue number one in our relations with Belarus. And then I said to Russian leaders, I must reveal a secret to you: “Well, why should we excite people? In fact, air defence is working in the interests of Russia now. All information… is received by Moscow in real time. Why should we need an Agreement or something like this? For a media hype or what? Let’s wait a little, while we are here.” “No, no!” But I promised, once I promised: “Okay, if you need it so much, we’ll sign it”. We have signed it. However, Europeans and Americans were distressed over that. And even after that the IMF granted us 2 billion dollars loan. Do you think it has happened without Americans’ participation? Americans are there. They “abstained” during the vote. They didn’t vote in favour. But they approved it and said: “The loan to Belarus should be granted. The situation there is difficult. We should grant it”.
About personal life: “In these 15 years I had 75 or 80 years of life”
And finally editors-in-chief asked the Belarusian dictator a few questions about his personal life. They asked whether he is a happy man.
“Extremely. I am a very happy man,” Alyaksandr Lukashenka said. “A great happiness fell to us to live in this time. And in this situation one can say the time has chosen us. On the other hand, I have experienced so many things over these 15 years, I have never had easy times in life. But I have experienced so many things over these 15 years, I can say one shouldn’t feel sorry for to me if I died. Over these 15 years I have lived all my 75, 80 or 90 years, I do not know how many I am destined to. I and my family wouldn’t have to feel upset… so on the one hand I am happy. And certainly if the country won’t collapse, I would be able to say that I have done something for these people and this country. I am saying that earnestly. And my happiness is in that”. After a while he added: “On the other hand, I have not seen anything good all this time. Absolutely nothing. I have nothing to say…”
http://www.charter97.org/en/news/2009/6/5/18851/
Russia calculates how much it spent to support Lukashenka’s regime
Russia estimates approximate losses due to gas supplies to Belarus in 2004–2008 at $15–16 billion.
PRIME TASS has learnt this from a source close to the Russian government.
He said how Russia estimates the losses. Annual average gas supplies to Belarus were 20 billion cubic meters a year in the recent years. “Belarus bought this volume of gas but didn’t pay export duties, 30 per cent of price, set up by Russia,” the source noted.
He added that pricing was based not on market conditions but on acceptable for the both parties conditions. As the result, the difference with neighbouring Poland in delivery prices was $200 per 1000 cubic meters in recent years.
For example, Russia sold gas to Belarus at $47.8 per 1000 cubic meters and to Poland at $124.8 per 1000 cubic meters (average European price) in 2004. So, the difference in prices was $77 per 1000 cubic meters. In 2008, the difference increased considerably – gas price for Belarus was $126 per 1000 cubic meters, for Poland – $417.3 per 1000 cubic meters.
“Russia’s losses due to gas supplies to Belarus on beneficial prices in 2004–2008 are about $15–16 billion. These losses were calculated on the basis of volume of gas supply to Belarus during the last 4 years taking into account the difference in prices with Poland, a neighbour of Belarus,” the source concluded.
He set data on year 2008 as an example. Belarus bought 21.060722 billion tons of Russian gas in 2008. Compared with Poland, the difference in prices was $290.5 per 1000 cubic meters. So, the sum of Russia’s aid to Belarus was about $6.1 billion.
http://www.charter97.org/en/news/2009/6/12/19086/
“Moskovsky Komsomolets”: Lukashenka is expected to kneel and beg pardon
Russian journalists try to guess under what condition Belarusian milk may return to the Russian market.
Return of Belarusian milk to the Russian market would depend on a range of conditions, head of the Russian Agency for Health and Consumer Rights Gennady Onishchenko said.
According to him, one of the conditions was “giving a full list of enterprises and types of dairy products”.
“Russia will choose laboratories, accredited in Russia, in accordance with the law. These laboratories will give reports covering all characteristics needed for the technical regulations and other normative acts,” Onishchenko said.
However, Russian journalists suppose there may be different conditions of returning Belarusian milk products.
“I imagine how Lukashenka will kneel and beg pardon Putin’s pardon for his rude words,” Aleksandr Minkin, an observer of “Moskovsky Komsomolets” newspaper told in an interview to”Echo of Moscow radio station.
Minkin said to a question whether Lukashenka should apologize to minister of finance Aleksey Kudrin:
“No, he shouldn’t! Kudrin is a function. Putin and Medvedev can be offended. We have two men who take offends. The rest have no right to take offends. They don’t dare. Have you ever seen that an official taking offend and banging the door after eh or she was insulted? Never! They do not have such a feeling. Milk has noting to do with this. As soon as Saakashvili said something insulting about Putin, Georgian wines, Borjomi, rahat-lokum, even dill spoilt. As soon as Lukashenka said something insulting, milk went sour. It happens with these wines, Borjomi, milk, cheese, sour creme at the very second when a leader of the guilty country says something offensive about our prime minister. That’s all. Products show immediate reaction.”
The journalist supposes Lukashenka won’t have to apologize to Putin:
“Maybe he won’t kneel but will just give what Russia wants him to give, these pipes. He must pay something for his rude words. He has said enough for a blockade,” Minkin said.
http://www.charter97.org/en/news/2009/6/12/19056/
Russian ambassador: “I wish there were more freedom of speech both in Russian and in Belarus”
For the first time in 11 years, journalists of the Charter’97 press center have been invited to a press conference given by the Russia’s ambassador in Minsk.
Though a formal reason for the today’s press conference was Day of Russia, celebrated in the neighbouring countries on June 11, Aleksandr Surikov answered topical questions about Belarusian-Russian relations.
Contrary to the expectations of journalists, estimations of the Russian ambassador were kept in low profile, but even this allows making certain conclusions.
Difficulties with “union state”
The diplomat noted at the beginning of the press conference:
“A range of difficult question raised and are raising in the process of building the “union state” of Belarus and Russia. It’s natural. We are gradually turning to equal market principles of trade and economic relations between the two countries. We must have a clear understanding of the fact both Russia and Belarus need to increase competitive strengths of their economies, in other case it will be difficult for the two courtiers to preserve independence under conditions of economic globalization.”
About Lukashenka’s criticism of Russian officials
Commenting to the Charter’97 press center on the resent remarks of Alyaksandr Lukashenka to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and minister of finance Aleksey Kudrin, the former made after Russia had refused to grant a loan in dollars, Surikov said:
“One should be able to come down, make less sharp remarks, speak in a calm tone.”
He reminded the situation when French President Nikolas Sarkozy’s remarks to the leaders of the EU states leaked to press.
“Sarkozy managed to find a way out of the situation preserving good bilateral relations. Such a skill is necessary for a politician and a top official. This is the most important skill,” the ambassador noted.
About disputable loan of $500 billion
Answering the question why Russia refused to give a $500-billion credit to Belarus, the Russian diplomat said:
“I’m sorry to hear such an interpretation of this situation with 500 billion of dollars that are still under consideration by Russia. Russia hasn’t refused to grant the money! Neither offered it to give the loan in Russian rubles. You said you were short of money, in particular, Belarusian rubles. Russia asked if you agreed to accept rubles instead of dollars. You said you needed dollars. Well, it’s ok if you want dollars… But taking into account the crisis, the Russian minister of finance said we would think about accounting for a month. So the question is still open.”
What to possibilities of gaining a loan from the Anti-Crisis Fund of the Eurasian Economic Community, Surikov noted that Belarus hadn’t allocated any money to it yet.
“The Anti-Crisis Fund has been created within frames of EurAsEC. The main fund holder is Russia. It allocates 7.5 billion out of 10 billion dollars. Kazakhstan offered one billion of dollars, the rest countries must to form packages to have the right to vote for disposition of the fund to overcome the crisis. I don’t exclude a question of giving $500 million to Belarus may be considered, but Russia will remain its main holder,” the ambassador said adding that “Belarus hasn’t formed its package for the anti-crisis fund.”
Answering the question whether it will be an additional credit or a long-expected Russian one, the ambassador said:
“These 7.5 billion dollars in the EurAsEC fund also belong to Russia! Such things may be correlated, but may be not correlated.
About the ban on importing Belarusian milk to Russia
The Russian diplomat thinks imposing sanctions on Belarusian dairy products defends interests of Russian consumers.
“I can’t imagine where journalists have found a collision here. The issue is imposing new technical regulations for milk products by Russia. Regulatory authorities of the two countries are not solving this collision. This period will end. The main thing here is defence of interests of consumers. We mustn’t allow that people can get poisoned. The things are running in a groove, but press always looks for sensations. Frankly speaking I nearly suffocated in this paper milk,” he noted.
Everything should be legally executed with Belarus leadership
Aleksandr Surikov thinks an agreement between Belarus and Russia on buying gas at annual average price must be executed legally.
“It would be better if the agreement on annual average gas price were executed legally, were written down in contracts,” he said.
The ambassador told legal execution of the agreement on annual average gas price was needed to “avoid legal troubles”.
“Belarus didn’t’ have annual average price debts, but I don’t exclude the contracted price may cause debts. So, we must legally execute this oral arrangement to avoid legal troubles in future,” Surikov said and reminded that Gazprom paid for gas transit in advance for three months.
Medvedev’s visit to Minsk still under question
The Russian ambassador said it hadn’t defined yet whether Russian President Dmitry Medvedev could visit Belarus on official Independence Day of Belarus marked on July 3.
“I don’t know so far if Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will visit Minsk on Independence Day July 3. I don’t have any information about this,” Surikov said.
“I may say something wrong…”
The diplomat was asked whether he thinks another devaluation of the ruble is needed in Belarus if the Russian minister of finance Aleksey Kudrin was right when he said Belarus was going to bankrupt.
Surikov was careful:
“You’d better asked Mr Kharkavets (minister of finance of Belarus – note of Charter’97) about this. Why do you ask me? I may say something wrong… I have my own view of this issue and I am not going to express it. Mr Kharkavets has his vision. Mr Kudrin has his vision. The IMF has its won view. I can say mine, but for what?”
Lack of freedom
At the end of the press conference, the Charter’97 press center asked Aleksandr Surikov to say which of the countries, Russia or Belarus, has more freedom of speech.
After some seconds of thinking, the Russia’s ambassador said: “I wish there were more freedom of speech in both countries.”
http://www.charter97.org/en/news/2009/6/11/19038/
Russia’s Transneft starts building Baltic Pipeline System-2
UNECHA, Bryansk Region, June 10 (Itar-Tass) - Russia’s oil pipeline monopoly Transneft started constructing the Baltic Pipeline System-2 (BPS-2) on Wednesday, the business news agency Prime-TASS said.
According to earlier reports, the project’s cost is estimated at between 120 billion rubles and 130 billion rubles.
The BPS-2 oil pipeline will run from the town of Unecha in the Bryansk Region to the Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga in the Leningrad Region.
Transneft plans to build the BPS-2 in two stages. The first stage of the pipeline, with an annual capacity of up to 30 million tonnes of oil, is expected to be launched in September 2012. The second stage of the pipeline, under which the system’s capacity will be increased to 50 million tonnes of oil, is slated to be completed in December 2013.
http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=14036581&PageNum=0
http://www.finrosforum.fi/?p=3159
