From: MSN NicknameEagle_wng  (Original Message)    Sent: 9/29/2006 7:46 AM
New States Rising?
By Vasilina Vasilyeva, Armen Khanbabyan The Moscow News
Moscow could deny Kosovo a chance at independence by initiating a series of referendums in the unrecognized post-Soviet states
 
Russian: Доказательство от противного

President Vladimir Putin's statement, which stated in effect that if the international community recognizes Kosovo independence, Russia would regard this as a universal approach toward resolving outstanding conflicts in the post-Soviet area, gave the unrecognized FSU states a breath of hope.

Transdnestr, a self-proclaimed republic in Moldova, has held the seventh referendum in its history with an absolutely predictable outcome: More than 97% of its population voted for the republic's independence and future accession to Russia. Inspired by this result, Transdnestr President Igor Smirnov immediately said the ruble will be introduced as a national currency and that the republic's laws will be harmonized with Russian legislation. After that, Smirnov made a hasty trip to Moscow, but details of the visit have not been revealed: Thus far the Russian leadership is not inclined to publicize its contacts with Transdnestr or its leader. It is quite possible, however, that in Moscow, Smirnov sought support not so much for his republic as for himself - what with Transdnestr's upcoming presidential election.

Incidentally, according to some reports, certain Moscow agencies provided the Transdnestr leader with support in holding the referendum. Meanwhile, its organizers - devoted Orthodox Christians and zealous advocates of Slavic unity - were unfazed by the fact that support also came from a delegation of Kosovo Muslim Albanians in the hope of acquiring new trump cards in their struggle for the disintegration of Christian Serbia.

Yet another plebiscite - also not the first - will soon be held in South Ossetia, which declared independence from Georgia following the collapse of the Soviet Union and a bloody conflict with the Caucasus state in 1991. Its outcome is also a foregone conclusion, leaving Tbilisi no hope: There will be no miracle. Even Nagorno-Karabakh (which claimed independence from Azerbaijan to join Armenia), which has recently somewhat distanced itself from the so-called CUS (Commonwealth of Unrecognized States), has started pondering the possibility of a new referendum.

Former sovereigns are predictably outraged, making ritual threats against the unruly autonomies, while the international community, as always, refuses to recognize any outcome of any plebiscites if they are held without sanction from Washington and Brussels. So the impression is that Vladimir Putin's statement could place Moscow in a rather dubious situation. After all, the recognition of Transdnestr or South Ossetia by Russia alone is not enough for their international legitimization, while the prospect of their admission to the Russian Federation looks extremely bleak even from the viewpoint of Russian legislation. So any moves by the Kremlin in this direction will be construed as annexation with all the ensuing consequences. Furthermore, there is also Chechnya, as well as the problem of separatism in Russia as a whole. And is there any guarantee that some radical Islamic states - e.g., Somalia or Sudan, which have nothing to lose - will not take "symmetric" steps with regard to Russia herself?

It is generally assumed that Putin's comments primarily targeted the Tbilisi and Chisinau regimes, unfriendly toward the Kremlin, meaning that unless you behave yourselves, problems will not be limited to wine and mineral water sanctions. Presumably, that was a part of the presidential message, but only a part, and a secondary one. There is no need for special statements for Georgia and Moldova to understand what Russia can do with them: Everything is perfectly clear as it is. Moreover, it is not up to the president to make such thinly veiled threats against neighboring countries.

Is Moscow initiating a new re-division of borders in the world?

It seems that Vladimir Putin's position stems above all from his striving to defend Serbia's territorial integrity. The Russian leader indicated in no uncertain terms that Moscow is ready to initiate a new phase in the re-division of borders - not only in the post-Soviet area, but throughout the world. Obviously, the Kremlin's message will make the Western advocates of Kosovo independence think twice and will also hand a strong card to the proponents of the principle of the inviolability of the existing borders. It could well be that very few in Europe and the United States are really concerned about the territorial integrity of the post-Soviet states or the future of their rebellious autonomies, but Basque, Catalonian, or Corsican separatism, Flemish-Walloon contradictions and some other centrifugal trends in a number of apparently untroubled countries cannot but worry Western politicians. Moreover, this is not only about Europe: There are many places in the world showing strong trends for the formation of new states. One such place is the Near East where the possible creation of Kurdish statehood can fully destabilize not only Iraq but also Turkey, Iran and Syria. Should this happen, it would be difficult to imagine what would happen with the oil prices. The West is hardly prepared to take such risks, including the risk of Russia automatically becoming the world's only stable energy supplier.

Furthermore, it is rather naive to believe that Europe is dreaming about Kosovo independence. Few people doubt that this would lead to the creation of the so-called Greater Albania - a state with a rapidly growing Muslim population that would soon start claiming EU membership.

The timing of Putin's statement was hardly accidental: It came at a time when negotiations on the status of Kosovo are entering a final stage. There is every reason to believe that Russia's decisive demarche will become a weighty argument in the decision-making process. And this decision will not be in favor of the Albanians: Kosovo will not acquire independence.

In all likelihood, a very high status will eventually be worked out for Kosovo - something that in diplomatic jargon is referred to as 'de facto independence.' The province will receive the maximum possible degree of self-government, as well as various trappings of statehood such as the emblem, the anthem, the flag, a police force, executive and legislative branches of government, and so on. In reality, Serbia will become a confederation. But Kosovo will not be able to separate from it and join Albania. Over time, as Serbia joins the EU, the idea will lose its appeal. There is no doubt that it is this scenario - not a decision that could provoke world chaos - that Vladimir Putin had in mind when he came out with his sensational statement.

Whatever the case, President Putin's point is incontrovertible: A Kosovo resolution will set a precedent. In this sense, it will be vital for all "parties concerned," including Russia.

http://english.mn.ru/english/issue.php?2006-37-1