Moscow intents to invade Abkhazia and south Ossetia
Sources related to Kremlin keep on discussions on different sceneries of possible actions of the Putin’s Cheka grouping for settlement of power problem in 2008.
 
It is supposed that two competing groupings for influence upon Putin, namely so-called intellectuals of Surkov and Co. and force departments representatives (the Putin’s team of security officers (famous Cheka in the past).
 
Kavkaz-Center wrote before about plans of abovementioned Surkov ( Kavkaz-Center 2006/04/05 – ed.). As for the idea of his Cheka Company, one of sceneries of their idea proposes reiteration of the Chechen variant against Georgia
 
This scenery supposes organization of the next “blitzkrieg” just on the threshold of elections for allegedly defense of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia against the Georgian aggression.
 
This plan stipulates provoking the central Georgian government for start of hostilities against the abovementioned autonomies. And Russia in response to this should start wide-scaled invasion of these regions under pretext of allegedly defense of civil population having the Russian state passports. Moreover they intend to use the Kosovo variant to obtain their aggressive plans. Russia will recognize independence of Sukhumi  and Tskhinvali  and defend them afterwards as far as they will have applied to it with relevant request.
 
It is clear that in war conditions when Russians bump off (according to usual slang of Putin) the Georgian nationalists, Putin should remain in power. In such conditions amendments to Constitution will be introduced to provide the third term of governing of Putin. And the country should support Putin.
 
Authors of this scenery allege that this is the extreme version for the third term. At first they prefer to use so-called peaceful technologies for saving the Putin’s ruling junta. However if the “peaceful scenery” fails, a must of Putin to stay in power during war will be chosen for the next version.
 
So governing officials of Tbilisi should think currently about their possible preventive actions as against verbal duels and complaints against Moscow. Only faith in Washington will turn into great defeat for Georgia. Experience shows that predators quite frequently agree behind the back of a victim.
 
Musa Stown
for Kavkaz-Center
2006-04-30 00:26:24
http://www.kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2006/04/30/4641.shtml