August, 25, 2005
The big Game in Central Asia
The term the Big Game has appeared in 19 century to designate imperial ambitions and rivalry between Russian and British empires in Asia . Now this term is used for a designation of new struggle for spheres of influence between Russia and China on the one hand, and USA on another.
Rates in this unwrapped Game are petroleum, commodity markets and so-called " war with terrorism ". Now all Central Asian region represents a field of geopolitic fights. Thus consider the experts of the Kazakhstan institute of strategic researches .
Participation of China in these fights is necessary for it for self-affirmation as great power in struggle against USA . The growing economy of China needs petroleum, and Kazakhstan within two nearest decades may become conducting exporter of petroleum in the world. In Russia there is a lot of petroleum, but after disorder of the USSR it has substantially lost influence in Central Asia, and recently has had additional appreciable losses in Georgia , on Ukraine and in Kirghizia .
USA , in turn, require both petroleum, and military bases in Uzbekistan and Kirghizia for war against Afghanistan and restraint of Islamic revival which in Washington after Israel , it counts as a global threat for its imperial interests.
In opinion of the Kazakhstan experts, within the framework of the Big Game (which remind the chess parties), till now the following courses were made .
- In July the Shanghai organization on cooperation where Russia , China and almost all countries of Central Asia are included, have asked USA to establish terms of a conclusion of the American armies.
- This month Russia and China for the first time in a history have lead joint maneuvers on Shandun'sk peninsula by the Yellow sea, approximately in 500 kms in a southeast from Peking .
- May, 25 this year China rendered the hearty welcome to the president of Uzbekistan, literally in some days after the bloody bath arranged by him in his own country.
The fate of the American base in Uzbekistan is predetermined. And the destiny of base of USA in Kirghizia is a big question. General Majers, the chapter of chiefs of the Incorporated staffs of the American army in this occasion has declared: iIt occures to me, like if two very big countries try to terrorize very small countries ".
Moscow in connection with these remarks has made the protest. Washington has refused to establish the terms of a withdrawal of armies from Uzbekistan . Therefore for him it has made Kamirov, having given America 180-daily term.
Political scientists believe, that the question of terms of withdrawal was initiated by China which considers, that the American bases serve not for " struggle against terrorism ", but for restraint of expansion of China .
The Central Asian dictators were disappointed in America which in the beginning they hotly welcomed. Them irritates the infinite looping of USA on rhetoric about human rights and democracy. The Chinese "non-interference to internal affairs" approach arranges more. The government of Kazakhstan is also terribly frightened by " orange revolutions ".
Meanwhile China persistently climbs to Central Asia . Kamirov has signed from Chinese People's Republic already 15 agreements on the most different questions, including telecommunications and joint development of petroleum. With these agreements China compensated financial losses of Uzbekistan from closing base of USA .
Bakiev, the new president of Kirghizia , submits contraversial signals about destiny of base of USA in Kirghizia . July, 11 he has declared, that war of USA in Afghanistan is completed, the situation "is stabilized", and it is possible to start negotiations about conclusion of the American armies. In 2 weeks he has told Ramsfield, that Kirghizia does not establish terms of their withdrawal.
Kazakhstan president Nazarbaev, who is once again going to win on the " democratic elections " in December, by nature is a very nervous person. Recently he has passed the laws forbidding the foreign organizations to help unregistered by him, Nazarbev , Kazakhstan political and religious organizations. This step is directed against the west, whose organizations on protection of human rights work in a direction of distribution of so-called western democracy worldwide.
Meanwhile Kazakhstan has signed with China the agreement on construction of the railway from kaspian petroleum area of Kazakhstan to the western China . In December the oil pipeline between Kazakhstan and China will be entered into exploitation. The Chinese farmers rent the ground in Kazakhstan . Sources of 2 main Kazakh rivers are on the territory of China , and China always may deprive Kazakhstans of water.
Peking , except for economy, also has interested in blocking the Uigur moslems of who it has declared as " the international terrorists ". Uigurs live in boundary areas with Kazakhstan .
Now position on a board of the Big Game is neutral, conclude the experts.Russia has military bases in 2 countries of region, USA also in 2 countries. Meanwhile, China has adopted tactics of soft occupation of other countries from USA . First there are investments, then there comes influence, and finishes a cycle the arrival of soldiers.
In this Big game Russia plays an auxiliary role, first of all for China though it still uses the certain influence: the cosmodrome, selling of the Kazakh petroleum through the territory .
The big Game will be played, most likely, economic and political, instead of military methods, and the victory in this case will get certainly to China ,consider the experts of region .
Dmitry Orlov, "Kaucasus-Center", 25.08.05
http://chechenpress.co.uk/english/news/2005/08/25/07.shtml
