Jule, 18, 2005

Fight for Central Asia

The future character of development of the situation is impossible to predict

Vugar Aslanov is a writer. He was born in the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan . He lives in Germany for more than one year.

The present President Kurmanbek Bakiev has gained a convincing victory in the presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan , taken place last Sunday, due to cooperation with Felix Kulov. In case of victory of Bakiev Kulov , who was supported in the north of the country, was promised the post of the prime minister. Bakiev comes from traditionally agricultural south of the country and represents it in the government of the state. Prescheduled election after the overthrow of President Askar Akaev is similar to a new revolution.

During the struggle against Akaev, Bakiev and his colleagues characterized themselves as democrats guided to the West. However, it is really difficult to bring the values of the West to a Central Asian republic. It is hardly necessary to expect, that Kyrgyzstan , which is still dependent, especially economically, on Russia and the neighbor Central Asian countries, will take too pro-Western rate, for example, like Georgia or Ukraine .

Whether the Kirghiz revolution will influence on neighboring countries? It is hardly probable. Contrary to all expectations it has changed its character. Kyrgyzstan has again established good relations with Russia and other, neighbor states, living in conditions of authoritative - communistic regimes. It found the confirmation several days before the elections.

At the summit of the Shanghai organization of Cooperation ( SOC) in Astana ( Kazakhstan ) - this organization includes China , Kazakhstan , Russia , Kyrgyzstan , Tajikistan , and Uzbekistan - Uzbek president Karimov found support in the problem of execution of demonstrators in Andijan. In the West these actions were condemned as infringement of legal limits in struggle against extremists. On the contrary, from Shanghai organization Karimov deserved praise for “resoluteness”: he, as they say, has prevented next “ Orange revolution”.

Karimov reacted to the pressure of West with the threat to refuse the USA in rent of the air stations in his country. They were transferred to disposal of the USA only in interests of the war against Afghanistan , but the war was officially over, this is how the Uzbek president justified his position. His decision became the main theme for discussion at the summit. In the resolution the organization demanded to define the exact terms of withdrawal of the troops of the NATO from the Central Asia . They can remain in Afghanistan , as much as they want, but their presence is not necessary any more in other Central Asian countries. They say, the Central Asian states together are able to protect themselves from terrorism. It is surprising that Bakiev also supports this resolution.

There are no any doubts that the resolution was prepared by Russia . For Russia it is important not to admit new “orange revolutions” and to reduce the influence of the West.

The danger of an “ Orange revolution” disturbs also Karimov and other Central Asian governors, including the president of Kazakhstan Nazarbaev . In the nearest future there will also be presidential elections in his country. In Kazakhstan there is a strong opposition directed against Nazarbaev and his clan. In order to avoid the destiny of Akaev , Nazarbaev plans to forbid carrying out of demonstrations before the elections and after them, having passed a special law.

On the space of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) the anti-West and antidemocratic moods widen again. In this respect Russia and China adhere to one position. And not only because of resources, which the growing economy of China needs more and more, but also, first of all, because of aspiration to expand its political influence, what can not be approved by the USA. So the situation in the Central Asia continues to remain unclear. It is impossible to predict the future character of development of the situation.

Vugar Aslanov, "Frankfurter Rundschau", Germany . InoSMI, 18.07.05.

http://chechenpress.co.uk/english/news/2005/07/18/05.shtml