KOMMERSANT Daily, JUNE 08, 2005
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 Photo:  Reuters
Moldova''s President Vladimir Voronin addresses a news conference after a meeting with European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana in Brussels June 7, 2005. Voronin said he had handed Solana a letter signed by himself and Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko asking the EU to get involved in monitoring the border of Moldova''s breakaway Dnestr region.
    
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The Plan of Victory Over Moldova
// ...was developed in Security Council of Russia
Yesterday the President of Moldova Vladimir Voronin started two weeks long European tour. He is going to visit Brussels and Strasburg. In the scope of his negotiations with the representatives of European Union and NATO are problems of Pri-Dnestrovie conflict settlement.

The Moldavian president was able to get European approval of the plan offered three weeks ago by Ukrainian president Viktor Yushenko. However, this plan does not go well will Moscow and Tiraspol. As Kommersant had learned, Russia already has its own plan of Moldavian problem resolution.

The Kiev's Hand

The long and thorough preparation was done before Voronin's visit to Brussels. In the end of last week Moldavian president met with his Ukrainian counterpart in Yaski, Odessa region of Ukraine. The presidents discussed the plans of resolution of the frozen conflict in Dnestr region. The plan was proposed by Kiev. Voronin asked the EU Representative Xavier Solana and the head of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barraza to help organize international monitoring in Moldavian and Ukrainian part of the state border. After meeting with Yushenko Voronin consulted with the leaders of all Chinsinau parliamentary factions and they unanimously approved Ukrainian initiative.

Chinsinau had to ask NATO and EU for a support, because Moscow and Tiraspol have shown uncompromised rejection of the Ukrainian plan. (In reality, the "Yushenko plan" is the fruit of joint efforts of Moldavian and Ukrainian diplomats.) In the beginning of this year Yushenko announced preparation of the initiative to resolve the crisis in the neighboring country. He promised to show a concrete plan on GUAM summit in Chinsinau on April 22. However, after preliminary familiarization with the proposed document, the Moldavian side persuaded Kiev not to rush the events.

As a result, on April 22 Ukrainian president offered only so-called seven steps, saying, that the complete version of the document will be submitted later. According to Yushenko's idea, the Tiraspol administration should completes the next steps: to create democratical multi-party system; to allow free election into the Supreme Council; to permit international observers to supervise the elections; to change the content of peace-keeping force and to include a regiments from NATO and USA; to invite United States and European Union to participate in the conflict settlement; to allow European Security Council (ESC) mission to control the border; and to let ESC members to monitor the weapon plants in the region.

The full text of the document was presented to Chisinau and Tiraspol only on May 17 during the negotiations with Russia, Ukraine, ESC, Moldova and Pri-Dnestrovie that were conducted in Vinnitsa. Before the document presentation, Ukrainian Secretary of Security Council Pyotr Poroshenko and Moldavian presidential aide Mark Tkachuk spent almost a month doing "shuttle diplomacy".

It was not surprising that Moldova supported that version of the document. Moscow and Tiraspol met this initiative negatively. And that was expected as well, because "Yushenko plan" suggests to consider Pri-Denstrovie as a Moldavian subject and to run elections accordingly. Besides, Russia and Pri-Dnestrovie do not want to see intervention of any outside forces.

Yesterday, Voronin got partial approval of the plan from the NATO Secretary General Yap de Hoop Scheffer. In the mean time, Chinsinau insists that the plan is already working. As Kommersant correspond learned from the Ministry of Re-Integration, this Friday Moldova parliament will adopt a special declaration on the subject. The next step would be putting through a special law about the status of Pri-Dnestrovie as a part of Moldova.

The Hand of Moscow

Moscow is bothered by Kiev's active involvement in the Pri-Dnestrovie problem. According to the information from Kiev, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke recently with his Ukrainian counterpart Boris Tarasyuk on the phone. In the conversation Lavrov asked for an explanations of the information that Ukrainian authorities are intended to "lock" Pri-Dnestrovie's part of Moldavian and Ukrainian border (it means to establish in this part joint Moldavian and Ukrainian custom check-points). Lavrov expressed concern about the events development. He considers this step as a economic blockade of Pri-Dnestrovie.

Due to the increased Western influence in the region, Moscow developed so-called "Action plan of retaining Russian influence in the Moldova Republic." However, the details of the plan are kept secret. Although, the Kommersant found out that this document was already at work for last several months in Russian Security Council with participation of all law-enforcement agencies, military organizations and key ministries of the economic block.

The main task of Russian policy in this document is the prevention of Moldova's further leaning to the West, weakening Russian influence and possible withdrawal of Russian presence in Pri-Dnestrovie. To prevent all these things from happening, Moscow is intended to increase trade, economical, political and humanitarian pressure on official Chinsinau. For instance, Russia can periodically halt Moldavian exports for the "technical reason" and to make a public deportation of thousands Moldavian illegal workers from Russia. Let's remind that starting from June 1 the Russian authorities already prohibited all imports of Moldavian agricultural goods. Also Moscow will be pressuring Moldova to keep existing peace-keeping setup and not letting Chinsinau to push Tiraspol out of the circle of decision makers. As for the reorganization of the Moldavian state, Russia wants Chinsinau to use federalization principles from the famous "Kozak Memorandum."

This plan, which sees Moldova as a confederate state with remaining Russian military presence in Pri-Dnestrovie until 2018, was created by Dmitry Kozak in October 2003 and proposed to Chinsinau. Kozak at that time held position of the Deputy of the Chief of Presidential Administration. In the very last moment, after the phone call from Brussels president Voronin refused to sign that plan and Putin cancelled his visit to Chinsinau and called Kozak back to Moscow.

If Voronin will not compromise, it is possible that he would have to face serious economic sanctions. For instance, Moldova might end up paying world prices for the fuel. Russia can also demand immediate payment of the Moldova's debt, which is about $1 billion. If the country refuses - Moscow would cut down supply of fuel.
by  Vladimir Soloviev, Boris Volkhonsky

Russian Article as of June 08, 200
http://www.kommersant.com/page.asp?id=583797