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AUGUST 2010

VOA: How the Russian-Georgian War Has Changed the World - Interview with Paul Goble

posted by circassiankama on August, 2010 as ANALYSIS / OPINION

How the Russian-Georgian War Has Changed the World - Interview with Paul Goble

Wednesday, 11 August 2010 20:04

(This interview was published on VOA News in Russian, 10 August 2010)

On the second anniversary of the Russian-Georgian war Yulia Savchenko talked about the consequences of confrontation and conflict lessons with Paul Goble - political scientist, a former specialist on ethnic minorities the U.S. State Department, and now a researcher with the Diplomatic Academy of Azerbaijan.

Yulia Savchenko: This is the second anniversary of the Georgian-Russian conflict of 2008. Different people have taken different things from this conflict. What do you think Georgia has learned from the conflict?

Paul Goble: Different people in Georgia have learned different lessons. Many, except perhaps the president, understand why the conflict happened. On the eve of the fighting, he clearly showed that he had misinterpreted the rules of the game in the international arena as well ...

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The Viewspaper: The Dynamics of Russo-Abkhaz-Georgian Tensions: Turmoil in the Southern Caucasus

posted by circassiankama on as ANALYSIS / OPINION

THE DYNAMICS OF RUSSO-ABKHAZ-GEORGIAN TENSIONS: TURMOIL IN THE SOUTHERN CAUCASUS

In light of USSR’s disintegration in 1992, a power vacuum was created in Georgia and the rest of the Caucasus fostering a bloody uprising in the Abkhazia region. Since then, most of Abkhazia has been autonomous from Georgia’s central government. Tbilisi has conducted occasional attempts to reclaim the region; only to be thwarted by Russia. Moscow after all, wholly supports the Abkhaz separatists and other secessionist movements throughout the country, including South Ossetia’s. The Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 was the epitaph of that. Tbilisi’s dream of regaining complete control of the whole region is unlikely in the near future. But there is another dimension that influences this. It is the centuries-long feud between the Georgians and Abkhaz; and Russia’s manipulation of tensions as a means of retaining geopolitical influence in the Caucasus. The following is a succinct analysis on why it is so.

Both the Abkhaz and Georgians are descendants of ...

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RFE/RL: Why Can Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili Not Emulate Willi Brandt?

posted by circassiankama on as ANALYSIS / OPINION

Why Can Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili Not Emulate Willi Brandt? by Liz Fuller

Saturday, 07 August 2010 15:33

Liz Fuller | Special to Abkhaz World

At the risk of being branded politically incorrect, I venture to suggest that the causes of Georgia's ill-fated conflict with Russia over South Ossetia are not just Russian neo-imperialism and the frequently adduced collision between the right of the Abkhaz and Ossetians to self-determination and the sacrosanctity of Georgia's territorial integrity.

Rather, the sequence of events over the past seven years is rooted in four related factors, which to a greater or lesser degree also hinder progress towards rebuilding trust between Georgia and its breakaway territories as a precondition for exploring possible models for future relations between them.

The first is Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's inability or refusal to comprehend that the concept of "autonomy" on which his successive draft peace proposals ...

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Window On Eurasia: ‘Orange-Style’ Revolution Could Take Place In Tuva, Kyzyl Opposition Says

posted by eagle on as ANALYSIS / OPINION

FRIDAY, AUGUST 20, 2010

Window on Eurasia: ‘Orange-Style’ Revolution Could Take Place in Tuva, Kyzyl Opposition Says

Paul Goble

Staunton, August 20 – Tuva, a republic in "the center of Asia” which once produced remarkable diamond-shaped stamps and attracted the attention of the American physicist Richard Feynman, is now attracting attention for another reason: the balance between the government and opposition is such that upcoming elections could lead to an Orange-style revolution there.
In a two-part, 5,000-word article in "Komsomolskaya Pravda” this week, Vladimir Vorsobin describes the striking complexity of Tuva, a place where the politics of Russia in the 1990s continues despite Putin’s erection of a power vertical and one where shamans have an important political role (kp.ru/daily/24541/720147/ and kp.ru/daily/24542/720698/).
Taking as his title the observation of a Tuvan opposition leader that "Soon All of Russia will Be Talking about Tuva,” Vorsobin suggests that his Russian readers should "imagine a 300,000-resident oblast isolated from the metropolis where time stopped sometime at the end of the 1990s.”
Tuva is gaining ever ...

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Window On Eurasia: Religious Leaders Split On Whether Moscow Is An Ethnic Russian City

posted by eagle on as ANALYSIS / OPINION

FRIDAY, AUGUST 20, 2010

Window on Eurasia: Religious Leaders Split on Whether Moscow is an Ethnic Russian City

Paul Goble

Staunton, August 20 – The Moscow city government’s plan to come up with a ‘Code of the Muscovite’ to instruct immigrants how to behave as well as Mayor Yuri Luzhkov’s support for Muslim celebrations in the Russian capital in the coming months have sparked debates over whether Moscow is or will remain a Russian city in the ethnic sense.
As it often does during controversies of this kind, the Regions.ru news agency has surveyed religious leaders of various confessions about whether they see Moscow as an "ethnically Russian” city now and in the future and consequently whether they approve of the city’s latest moves regarding immigrants and religion (www.regions.ru/news/2307423/).
The five Russian Orthodox figures generally supported the idea that Moscow is an ethnically Russian city, but they varied in their assessments of how Russians living there should deal with Muslims in order to protect this "Russianness” in the future. The ...

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