Archil Gegeshidze: I do not foresee lasting Russian presence in our region

Sat 21 November 2009 | 07:56 GMT Text size:
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Archil Gegeshidze

News.Az interviews Amb. Archil Gegeshidze, Senior Fellow of Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies.

How can you assess the established geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus region?

The situation is undesirable and there are still too many division lines. We are yet too far from integration. A small territory has so many lines, so many walls both inside Georgia and the region – between you and Armenia. This is not favorable for our countries that are at the start of their development. Certainly, some has more resources, others less, but they are not enough for independent development without cooperating with other countries in the region. Our location made us mutually dependent which causes the need for our economic and other interaction. Thus, the current situation does not promote the peaceful and rapid development of our region. If once we manage to jump over our head and overcome the political differences and disputes, we will be able to settle all the issues of our national and regional interests effectively and through joint efforts. We have no regional conscience and regional responsibility. We all work for ourselves and this is harmful for our future. There are some possibilities and theoretical ways out of the situation but we lack pragmatism, lack state vision of the future in decades. This is a vision that should be a basis for the decisions possibly seeming tactically unprofitable but capable of bringing more benefits within decades. We lack all these, therefore, the region is suffering. For this purpose, the neighbors in our region, including small and big players, are not ready to let us closer, integrate with those institutions that they created and  that have been the most favorable  ones through outthe history. This is a reality that needs changes.

There are countries in our region that bind their future to the West and there is a country that is inclined towards Russia. How do you see the overcoming of barriers in these conditions, as the interests of Russia and West clash again?

The difference you mentioned is a temporary event. This difference results from the unsettled Karabakh problem. As soon as it is settled, Armenia will also draw the due conclusion, because as a nation, it is more inclined to western values than to those Russia propagates. Thus, this division line is temporary. Though, I do not know how long it will last, perhaps, until the Karabakh conflict exists. If the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement leads to the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, it will cause changes in Armenia’s course. Thus, in this regard, I do not foresee the lasting Russian presence in our region.

Considering your opinion, it is possible to say that Russia is not interested in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict for the purpose of not surrendering Armenia to the West?

Unlike the conflicts in Georgia, Russia is less involved into the Karabakh conflict and, therefore, is less interested in its preservation. It has interest in Karabakh though not so great because unlike Georgia Armenia’s immediate escape to the west is not at issue in the case of the Karabakh conflict. Armenia may escape but Russia also may preserve tools to allow its temporary presence in Armenia. Georgia escapes in any case. Even after August war of the last year Georgia has not changed its foreign policy. Therefore, answering your question, I would say that Russia has less potential to resist internal and external tendencies that stimulate the outcome, which means Russia has not so many reserves to resist this process. Georgia has such reserves but they did not work as Russia initiated war. In case with Karabakh, Russia will be unable to trigger war: it does not border either on Karabakh or Armenia and there are no Russian citizens in Karabakh. This is the main difference. In this regard, Karabakh problem has more chances to be settled than the conflicts in Georgia.

How do see the settlement of conflicts in Georgia after the August war and recognition of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Russia?

I think nothing will change in the nearest future as Russia is greatly interested in preservation of the new quo status after the August war. Only through this will Russia be able to prevent Georgia’s integration with NATO or NATO’s penetration into the South Caucasus. Economic sanctions against Georgia did not work, neither did the hopes for the firth column in Georgia. On the whole, the pro-Russian policy is unpopular in Georgia. Thus, the overall pro-western vector is based on public consensus. Russia could stop this process only through this. Now Russia will long be standing its ground and I do not know how long this will last. Some of my colleagues consider that in the near future Russia will have to quit the Caucasus as it will go through the processes that happened in the Soviet Union. Let’s hope so! I do not know when happens. Earth revolves on its axes more rapidly for Georgia than it does for Russia. We cannot wait for changes or for the second perestroika in Russia. We will have to find a common language with Abkhazs and South Ossetians as we will have to live together.

This is a long lasting process requiring Georgia’s transformation from a post-Soviet state into a European country with its mentality and its institutions. The contrast of the overall development and living conditions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the rest of Georgia should be obvious. Moreover, time should pass for Abkhazians to understand that the proximity to Russia is not profitable for them in terms of development. If Georgia manages to take practical steps for institutional integration in EU (I mean closing, but not full integration), if we manage to conclude a contract of free trade with the EU within the Eastern Partnership initiative, thus replacing the lost Russian market with a wider European market, if our citizens are able to travel to Europe without visas or under simplified visa regime, this will make Georgia attractive. The Cyprus variant when a separatist part of the island is now striving to reunification with the rest part can repeat. This is quite realistic.

Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az

http://www.news.az/articles/3047