Analysis: Advantage to Russia in US missile move
By MIKE ECKEL
(AP)
–
14 hours ago
MOSCOW — The Kremlin got exactly what it wanted when the United States scrapped plans for missile defenses on Russia's borders.
And
Moscow wasted no time in trying to show, at least publicly, that it has
ceded nothing in return and, in fact, intends to press for more from
Washington.
Iran and its nuclear intentions loomed over
Thursday's decision by the Obama administration to abandon the idea of
placing a missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Lurking not far under the surface were deeper issues such as the fate
of Washington's staunchest allies in the former Soviet bloc and their
fears of their massive eastern neighbor.
For now, Russia appears
to have the upper hand — the Kremlin can crow to a domestic audience
about staring down the Americans and thumbing its nose at the upstart
Poles. The White House is hoping for more cooperation from Moscow on
Iran and other simmering international issues, something that's far
from a sure thing.
Missile defense in Eastern Europe was arguably
the most serious thorn in the U.S.-Russian relationship, with Moscow
repeatedly and angrily insisting that the system was pointless against
an imagined Iranian threat — and was a grave threat to Russian national
security.
On the day after Barack Obama won his historic election
victory last year, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, in lieu of
congratulations, threw down the gauntlet, threatening to put
sophisticated short-range Iskander missiles on Poland's border if
Washington didn't stop the deployment.
On the day Obama announced
the decision to scrap the plan, Medvedev said that was the right move
all along — a smug announcement that made no concessions and sounded
like a lecture to a wayward teenager.
He took a similarly blunt
tone in an interview with Swiss media that was posted on the Kremlin
Web site Friday, saying: "If our partners hear any of our concerns,
then we of course we will more carefully consider their concerns. But
this doesn't mean primitive compromises and swaps."
"We are
mature enough not to tie one decision to another," he said. "But there
always is a score in politics. This is also obvious."
Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin, who often found incendiary ways to describe
the United States as president before Medvedev, praised the decision.
He then promptly demanded more, such as lifting Cold War-era trade
restrictions.
"I very much hope that this right and brave
decision will be followed up by others, including the full cancellation
of all restrictions on cooperation with Russia and high technology
transfer to Russia as well as a boost to expand the (World Trade
Organization) to embrace Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan," Putin told an
investment forum.
Russia is the largest economy without WTO membership, and Moscow accuses Washington of being behind that.
It
was unclear what behind-the-scenes talks went on between Moscow and
Washington before Obama's announcement Thursday. Russian officials said
there was no quid pro quo.
Medvedev foreign policy adviser Sergei
Prikhodko said the move would require the Kremlin to "attentively
consider new possibilities opening up for cooperation and interaction."
And
the announcement Friday that Russia would not deploy Iskander missiles
near the Polish border? That had merely been a threat, not an actual
deployment.
Neil MacFarlane, a Russia expert at Oxford
University, said the Obama decision was made for technical reasons, not
as a result of some deal with Russia.
"A specific quid pro quo? I doubt it," he said. "But was there a nod and a wink? Well, I don't know."
Where
Washington is counting on Moscow for serious help is on Iran, and
pressing it to stop moving toward development of nuclear weapons.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will join U.S. Secretary of
State Hillary Rodham Clinton and counterparts from the three other
permanent members of the U.N. Security Council in New York next week
for discussions on Iran.
But there's no indication that Russia —
a major trading partner with Iran — is yet willing to support harsher
U.S. measures against Tehran. Prikhodko gave no hint whether Moscow
could edge closer to the U.S. position, and Lavrov made the same signal
in a speech given just hours before Obama's announcement.
"There
is a real chance to engage in talks which could result in an agreement
allowing us to regain confidence in exclusively peaceful character of
the Iranian nuclear program," Lavrov said. "It would be a grave mistake
to ruin that chance by demanding a quick introduction of sanctions."
While
Moscow may be content, countries like Poland and the Czech Republic
fear Obama's decision has only darkened the shadow that Russia has long
cast over them.
On Friday, in the same Polish tabloid whose
headline screamed "Betrayal! The U.S. sold us to Russia and stabbed us
in the back," President Lech Kaczynski wrote that Poland had been left
in a dangerous "gray zone."
That fear may be even more acute in
Ukraine and Georgia. Both aspire for NATO membership, yet Moscow
considers both to be part of its historic sphere of influence.
"Russia
will probably also get the right to lobby for not letting Ukraine and
Georgia join NATO for the near future," said Viktor Chumak, a foreign
policy expert with the International Center for Policy Studies in Kiev.
"We are losing the possibility to enter NATO in the immediate future."
Georgia,
in particular, has staked its future on the U.S. countering Russia's
dominance in the strategic South Caucasus. Many had hoped the U.S.
would have done more to help Georgia in its war last year with Russia,
which resulted in the loss of the separatist regions of South Ossetia
and Abkhazia.
Temuri Yakobashvili, the Georgian government
minister in charge of efforts to regain control of the regions, said
Washington has given in to Russia — during the war and now with missile
defense — and warned that Moscow will now seek even more concessions.
"I don't think that they will be satisfied with only this," he told The Associated Press.
___
EDITOR'S NOTE — Mike Eckel has reported on Russia and the former Soviet Union since 1998.
Associated Press writers Raphael G. Satter in London, Sergei
Venyavsky in Sochi, Russia, Maria Danilova in Kiev, Vanessa Gera in
Warsaw and Misha Dzhindzhikhashvili in Tbilisi contributed to this
report.
Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
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