From: MSN NicknameEagle_wng  (Original Message)    Sent: 10/16/2007 4:43 AM
October 16, 2007

Russian Pre-Election Psychology

 

SIA CHECHENPRESS October 16, 2007

Russia’s “Sovereign Democracy” is a pretty predictable thing, the outcome of so-called democratic elections will be precisely what president Putin, The Kremlin and The Russian Secret Police, FSB, want in order to remain in absolute control of their vast country.

In order to safeguard the desired election results there is a de facto press censorship, harassment of dissidents, human rights activist and non governmental organizations. 215 journalists have been killed in the past fourteen years, obviously for telling the truth. In order to be absolutely sure to eliminate real political opposition, the threshold to obtain representation in Parliament, the Duma, has been raised from 5 to 7 per cent. The pro-Putin party “United Russia” thrones pretty much alone, the rest being a mere alibi for pluralism.

On top of this, Vladimir Putin has started an impressive ego-building and hero worshipping around his own person. We see the comments and pictures in the Russian state media, overloaded with personal admiration. The Kremlin has also inspired the establishment of the Russian youth organization “Nashi” (“Us” in English.) Their credo is to support their great leader, Vladimir Putin. Then they are also nicknamed “Putinjugend.” His visit to their summer camp in July appeared to be a revelation of almost religious proportions to their members.

Yesterday, Monday 15th October Vladimir Putin visited Wiesbaden in Germany for talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel. He is scheduled to fly during the night to Tehran upon the invitation of president Ahmadinejad and will also attend a summit meeting there today between the Caspian sea littoral states – Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. This meeting must be viewed in the context with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which also includes China, - and their meeting in the Kyrgys capital of Bishkek last week.

Prior to the meeting in Germany, FSB raised some doubts about Mr. Putin’s travelling arrangements, because they claimed to have information about a planned plot to kill the Russian president in a suicide attack in the Iranian capital today. These allegations were dismissed by the Iranian Government as totally unfounded. When asked yesterday what the president would decide, he replied in real macho style: “Of course, I’ll go.” Great theatre!

In December there is the Duma election and in March the election for Russian president. For a long time it has been quite clear that Putin’s successor will be – Putin - And FSB continued control! Whatever face the next president will have, it will one hundred per cent loyal to Putin, and wholly controlled by the power elite. Maybe Putin will transfer power to the Prime Minister’s office which he himself will assume, but more likely he will put a puppet in the presidential chair and arrange for the necessity of another presidential election before long. The outcome will be pretty certain.

Vladimir Putin came to power because of the resumption of war against Chechnya in 1999. Weeks after he was appointed prime minister, bombs in Russian blocks of flats killed 294 innocent Russian civilians. This gave him the reason to blame the terrorism on Chechen separatists and go to war on the Chechen republic. However, later it was documented that these heinous and cynical crimes were orchestrated by the FSB itself to build up fear and chaos that was intended for the political purpose they had in mind. Alexander Litvinenko, brought this to world attention, and was so horribly murdered for it last year.

In 2008 we may experience another state of emergency around Russia. Part of the exercise may be to gear up military rhetoric to generate a dangerous international situation. We may also see some terrible real terrorist acts, orchestrated by FSB in symbiosis with some chosen bandits, as indeed was the case at the Dubrovka “Nord-Ost” hostage taking in October of 2002. If such plans are to be considered, we should be concerned that they may be extended to take an international dimension. It just may be that the power elite in Moscow wants to teach the West a lesson and “share” some of the “international terrorism” they are crusading against at home, -and receiving so little international understanding and recognition for!

It is also quite conceivable that Putin himself will play a part in this psychological game. Putin is a hero in Russia. If there are threats to his life, it will create sympathy and emotions no end. There may even be a staged mock up attack on him, and everybody will see how bravely he will defy danger. If criminal events should be part of a political strategy, it is beyond any doubt that the blame will be put on Chechen resistance. This again, may serve as cause for further human rights abuses against the Chechen people.

These thoughts may seem a little unreal in Western Europe and our mindset. However, regrettably they are less so in Russia. If such scenarios should become realities I am worried that yet once more the International Community will prefer to sit still, decide to swallow the story, and nod approvingly to Vladimir Putin's “legitimate right” to protect himself and his people. It takes much more courage to recognize the lies and act on them. Chechnya will slip further away into darkness and oblivion.
 
That is, unless we mobilize decency and our heritage of civilization, resist terrorism and war crimes in any shape or form and insist on freedom and security, human rights and the rule of law to prevail all over Russia.
 
So, let us keep the
 
SPOTLIGHT ON RUSSIA!

Ivar Amundsen
Director, Chechnya Peace Forum, London

http://www.chechenpress.co.uk/english/news/2007/10/16/01.shtml