From: MSN NicknameEagle_wng (Original Message) Sent: 8/6/2005 3:02 AM
August, 3, 2005
Putin at broken "Chechen trough"
Irina Lagunina: In spite of the fact that authorities declare, that in republic has passed process of "normalization", the region remains in a condition of war. The Russian forces also are at war with resistance in three next republics, in quite confusing operations which are crossed with gangsterism, kidnapping and criminal disassemblies. It is not expected from Russian president Vladimir Putin any new initiatives to finish the war. Last week he told the ministery, that whatever military operations were planned, they should be carried out as soon as possible - this is one of the rare publications about the Chechen Republic of recent times in the western press. The newspaper " Irish Times ". What did we get from this almost six-year-old war? I pass a microphone to Andrey Babitski.
Andrey Babitski: Official Kremlin political scientists as Viacheslav Nikonov or Sergei Mark assert that, at last the campaign is victoriously completed. Sergei Mark recently has declared, that the problem of the Chechen Republic moved for Putin on the second place, because the president of Russia for the past period managed to untie its basic knots. However there exist absolutely different point of view according to which strategy of the Kremlin in Caucasus has turned back with a failure. It is interesting, that in such way reckon the supporters of the war termination, as well as those who think that power efforts of Russian authority in the Chechen Republic are insufficient.
That is what the head of a department of problems of interethnic institute of the political and military analysis Sergey Markedonov speaks, with whom on this theme recently was published this interview on a website "Polit.ru ": " Putin's policy has failed in the Chechen Republic not because it forceful as many speak about that, but because it is inconsistent and because it , on the contrary, very strongly poisons the system separatists. There is not just enough power component ". Markedonov, as well as a number of other Russian analysts, believe, that the biggest mistake was to hand republic over to local appointees, that refers to chechenisation of the conflict. That exactly the traditional structure of the Chechen society in whatever forms it acted, Russian or antiRussian, is a source of violence, corruption, separatism and terrorism.
About the question, whether the authorities have accomplished chechenisation, I have asked the representative of Ichkerian government in Europe Akhmed Zakaev. In his opinion, Chechens today have simply disassembled the roles among themselves: someone is on federlas side, another is at war, but all together they are against Russia at any rate.
Akhmed Zakaev: If to speak about tactics of Russia chosen by them for chechenisation of this conflict, I think, that it under all those rotation about which there is a speech, these move there, therefrom move here, those reports which today we hear from the lips of high-ranking Russian officials and militarians - this is , certainly, a full failure. I will explain why.
Because the chechenisation will fail for one simple reason: Chechens have very sad historical experience of an opposition. And at the certain moment the mechanism of a survival comes into play, practically it has happened, since 2002. If to take in calculation that occured in 2000, even 2002 if the Chechen Resistance somehow was afraid to carry out an attack on a militarized column near to any settlement this is because that, after this operation the most severe stripping operation was carried out in this settlement, and due to this operation, practically peace innocent citizens were destroyed.
Today the situation hardly has changed. Despite of those, I do not take two divisions of GRU into account, in which all the Chechen criminals has concentrated, the militia basically as though protects civilians today. Therefore is the Chechen Resistance more free in a choice of methods and tactics of an attack on the Russian armies or on the Russian columns. Because this mechanism also has worked. Everything in the Chechen Republic took its place. There is an active part or a permanent reserve of supreme commander in chief Sadulaev, which has concentrated on military bases. There are diversive groups which will carry out the acts of sabotage on the plain and on an occupied part of territory. Also there is a militia which in any case under all that negativeness, which carry these two divisions, and the fact that there are Chechens who today under the Russian flag conduct a hunt and struggle against the Chechen Resistance, is that positive fact, that it as though became the guarantor in protection of civilians.
Andrey Babitsky: Some other approach to a problem discusses the known Russian psychologist Leonid Kitaev-Smyk, who is just sure, the federal authority would accomplish to knock Chechens together , if it was its task, and now to overcome the sown enmity will be extraordinary difficult.
Leonid Kitaev-Smyk: The matter is that before the beginning of the first Chechen war or in the beginning of its force formation, imperous forces tried to create war inside the Chechen society, that is to wake very dangerous blood feud into mountain peoples. But it turned out that it was required 10, even may 11 years that at last with enormous militarians and brutal efforts to implement the wake-up of blood feud and war in the Chechen Republic between one "teipovs" with others, one families with another families, it is now extremely difficultly to stop. Though it is known, that exactly in the Chechen society, unlike many mountain peoples, is such institute, as reconciliation, as general reconciliation. It is extremely complex procedure, but it is possible, when to stop all blood fueds is possible. But it takes long time to get at. And it is difficult to imagine,how much effort need to be undertaken. That is, they have done it, and now one are against others at war.
Andrey Babitsky: However Akhmed Zakaev asserts, that the traditional Chechen culture since times of general Ermolov, successfully resists to any attempts to divide a society into struggling clans, families or generations. It remains indivisible, in spite of everything, especially, the reasons for discontent in the population for six years of the war are more, than enough. Internal contradictions, according to Zakaev, are overcome due to the common trouble, which is equally painful and intolerable for all Chechens, and for those who formally stays on the Russian side, and for those who shows resistance. As a result of some extent it supports the armed struggle.
Akhmed Zakaev: I think, in the presence of cynicism Stalin - this was a unique person, who still solved the Chechen question finally. Because he did not begin to divide Chechens into good and on bad, and with one order, with one decision tried solve this problem,he deported all Chechens, starting from nomenclature of party and ending up with simple citizens of the Chechen Republic . But at the same time Stalin did not manage to take out those groups of Resistance which operated in mountains against the Soviet authority. And Putin, on the contrary, today tries a huge part of the population to oppose other part which disagrees with his policy. And with his policy, today it is possible to say easily that, 99 % of the Chechen population is not agreed, and it, in every possible way, supports those processes which conduct the struggle against Putin's regime.
Andrey Babitsky: inner conflict at all may not be considered as the factor, influencing upon the outcome of the military campaign. The true reasons of the war are outside the Chechen Republic , considers the psychologist Leonid Kitaev-Smyk, and consequently the Chechens alone will never manage to cope with others.
Leonid Kitaev-Smyk: I think, that those officials from among the Chechen inhabitants sent there, if they even make enormous efforts, the efforts based on honesty, on nobleness, they will not be able to stop the war, will not be able to stop violence in this part of the Northern Caucasus, unless the same Kremlin uses the force upon the inflating war, the force upon supporting this combustion. That is, whether it possesses those mechanisms with the help of it may extinguish the war inflated by Kremlin - is a big question.
Andrey Babitsky: Sergey Markedonov's interview contains rather gloomy forecast about acts of terrorism, which number, in his opinion, in the near future hardly will decrease. The supporter of the direct presidential board, the political scientist is sure, it must be overcome the traditionalism of Chechens who is a source of neglect to the right of a human for life. The citation: " our authority does not try to return the Russian right in a bosom of the republic ,but creates closed joint-stock company of the Chechen Republic . Nutritious ground for acts of terrorism is neither the passion to trotyl nor explosions, not game in war, but traditional culture of the Chechen community or most likely marginal structure ".
Akhmed Zakaev speaks, that after death of Maskhadov the new authority of Ichkeria has developed essentially new strategy of struggle - liberation of the Chechen Republic , as the consequence - the general prosperity of Chechen people, depends on how quickly and successfully will the process of disorder of the Russian Federation go. It is a serious news.
Akhmed Zakaev: Any recession of resistance will not occure, conversely, it will feel now much more sure, than in 2000, 2001. Moreover, presently, it is being establishing contacts and communications with other military-political centres which are being created in the Russia . That, Maskhadov constantly opposed the expansions of a conflict zone, today this mechanism very actively has joined. I think, this tactics chosen a today's management of the Chechen republic of Ichkeria , justifies itself. Though I once again want to emphasize, that the Chechen Republic is, probably, the unique country in the world which was not interested in disorder of Russia , the Russian Federation , but Chechens participate in it because of absence of a choice. Also I think, that there are two variants - this is a substitution of the regime of Russia and agreement with those who will come after Putin. And today the policy and tactics of the Chechen authority of republic Ichkeria is much more justified, than there were three years or two years ago. Not to use that potential which is today in Russia , all these centrifugal forces which practically lead Russia to collapse, from our side was the big mistake even in the beginning of the second war. Still, since then it was necessary to very actively organize a kind of joint actions against this regime.
Andrey Babitsky: As some kind of the in absentia comment to the words of Akhmed Zakaev may serve Leonid Kitaev-Smyk's opinion who considers, that during the years of the war, the Chechen society dramatically mutated: both the underground, and all population as a whole today is more susceptible to ideas of martial, according to the psychologist, islam, than it was earlier.
Leonid Kitaev-Smyk: This is still war, though it is affirmed, that there it is not present. it is an awful. This awful war has extremely changed all Chechen society. And its "teipov" structure, being kept, somewhere even amplifying as the protest against the war and those who conduct it, it is appreciably deformed. And consequently now this society keeping centuries surprisingly harmonous archaic structure, is broken up to extreme. That the islam has come appreciably in the greater degree, than earlier, in this republic are protective mechanisms of ethnos. Therefore Islamic filling of a former Chechen society has very much changed, it began martial. And not casually Chechen insurgents as they named themselves during the first war, is called mojakheds. Because the islam is global - it has come in the Chechen islam and in the Chechen society.
Andrey Babitsky: Sergey Markedonov has his own plan how to finish the war on Caucasus . But it, seems, is not realizable by virtue of that, because for its realization it is required decades. And still the citation: " This operation will be finished, when, firstly, narrow-minded structures daily will come in the Chechen Republic , instead of militarians. Imagine, how long it will be stretched ", - notices political scientist. " Secondly, when the normal government will come in the Chechen Republic , the strong national government, instead of that corruptive amorphous community which is now called our commonwealth".
"Radio Freedom"
Chechenpress, the Department of MASS-MEDIA, 03.08.05.
http://chechenpress.co.uk/english/news/2005/08/03/01.shtml
