From: MSN NicknameEagle_wng  (Original Message)    Sent: 4/19/2005 12:50 PM
19.04.2005
Rice’s “Russia gambit”

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, visiting Russia for the first time as America’s top diplomat, is expected to promote an agenda of closer security and defense cooperation, as well as to reiterate Western concerns related to Vladimir Putin’s commitment to democracy. Balancing both policy agenda, Rice is expected to press head with the former and approach latter indirectly.

Slated to visit Moscow for two days starting Tuesday, Rice has made it clear U.S. policy toward Russia is one of engagement, but with concerns about what her predecessor Colin Powell called «Russia’s democratic backsliding." As Rice departed for Moscow, she echoed some of the same sentiment, stating: «Our relationship with Russia holds enormous potential, and we can do even more together as Russia moves along a democratic path."

Is Rice’s approach toward Russia the same as Powell’s? One could ask and even question whether Rice is of the same mind when it comes to U.S. policy toward Russia as her boss George W. Bush. Both Bush and Rice would like to see Russia as a strategic ally committed to democracy. How Russia gets to that point appears to a difference Bush has allowed Rice to pursue as she sees fit.

There is no doubt that Rice is committed to the Bush’s administration’s promotion of democratic freedoms and institutions around the world. Bush has set this to be his primary foreign policy goal of his second term in office. He reminded his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin as much when the two presidents met in Bratislava, Slovakia in February.

Putin has been sharply criticized by some at home and many abroad for his political reforms that include Kremlin appointment of regional governors and legislation that promotes large political parties at the expense of candidates running as independents or as members of small niche parties. Putin has also been criticized for what is perceived to be the Kremlin’s considerable influence over Russia’s electronic media and over-involvement in elections in the post-Soviet space.

Irrespective of these criticisms, there are many indications Rice may believe that, in the case of Russia, promoting democracy can be achieved in a more nuanced fashion other than openly criticizing specifics of the Kremlin’s recent record related to domestic political reforms and attitude to media. Rice’s strategy is to encourage the Kremlin to continue reform at home through engagement of Russia on a bilateral and international basis.

Rice’s first priority during her Moscow visit, no different from Bush’s Bratislava encounter, is to assure the Kremlin that the United States is not bent on isolating Russia in the international area — an issue about which Putin publicly wondered aloud at the end of last year. Of equal importance is the continued engagement of the Kremlin in the crucial areas of the war against terror and the effort to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. Can either issue prod the Kremlin in the political direction Rice would like to see? Most likely not, nor should this be expected.

As an experienced Russia analyst, Rice understands full well that berating the Kremlin in public for its record on domestic political issues will only be received as a dead letter in Moscow. Such an approach did not work when dealing with the Soviet Union and has proven to equally apply to Putin’s Kremlin.

Rice’s pre-visit comments indicate how she intends to promote and develop bilateral relations. «My message there will be that a democratic and vibrant and prosperous Russia is in everyone’s interests," she said. Rice followed up with what appears to be the key to bilateral engagement: «To find a relationship with Russia that can bring Russia West so that Russia continues its progress toward a more democratic and open and free-market society."

Both statements concern the state and future of Russian democracy, but equally important is integration of Russia into Western economic and trading institutions. According to this Secretary of State, open markets can foster more open societies — Russia included. Toward this end, both Russia and the United States have agreed that Russia should enter the World Trade Organization this year. According the Russian daily Vremya Novostei, Rice’s Kremlin interlocutors are also keen to discuss other trade and energy related issues during her visit. These are not democracy-specific issues, but avenues of cooperation to support Russia’s «free-market society."

Many have interpreted Rice’s comments on the state of Russia’s democracy as the Bush administration’s hawk toward Putin’s Kremlin. In fact, it would appear that Bush himself is the hawk and Rice the dove.

Everything about Bush’s foreign policy style indicates that he is interested only in high priority national security goals and the broadest promotion of democratic values and institutions around the world. How both agendas are achieved is delegated to subordinates.

Rice is Bush’s «Russia hand." He has provided Rice with his vision for U.S.-Russia relations and given her as much latitude as she needs to bring that vision to fruition. Her message to the Kremlin elite regarding democracy may not be well received by Putin’s numerous critics, but Rice’s job is not to please anyone except her boss.

Peter Lavelle / UPI
http://www.chechentimes.org/en/press/?id=28203