posted by circassiankama on December, 2009 as DAGESTAN
December 04, 2009
Who Will Be Daghestan's Next President?
The political situation in Daghestan is arguably both more complex, and
more difficult to comprehend, than that in any other federation
subject. That complexity derives less from the ongoing battle against
the Islamic resistance than from the constant jockeying for power and
influence among and within the largest of the republic's 14 titular
nationalities: the Avars, Dargins, Kumyks, and Lezgins.
That
rivalry has emerged as a key factor in the ongoing deliberations over
whether incumbent President Mukhu Aliyev should serve a second term,
and if not, who should succeed him.
On November 19, United
Russia Chairman Boris Gryzlov presented to Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev a list of five potential presidential candidates. (The usual
number is three.) That list includes Aliyev, an Avar, whose term
expires in February 2010, but not two other prominent political figures
who have been identified as possible successors to him: Makhachkala
city Mayor Said Amirov (a Dargin), and the reclusive Moscow-based
billionaire Suleiman Kerimov (a Lezgin). Three of the candidates were
nominated by the Daghestan chapter of United Russia, the remaining two
by the party's General Council.
In addition to Aliyev, the other four candidates are:
Magomed
Abdullayev, a 48 year old Avar whom Aliyev named a deputy prime
minister in late October. A lawyer by profession (he and Medvedev were
fellow students at the law faculty at St. Petersburg University),
Abdullayev has spent his entire career in academia and has little
administrative experience. The lawmakers' jibe about candidates who
lack experience may well have been aimed at him.
Magomed
Magomedov, an Avar businessman who formerly represented Smolensk Oblast
in the Federation Council, and is now an adviser to Federation Council
Chairman Sergei Mironov. In addition, Magomedov is said to be on good
terms with an impressive number of other senior Kremlin officials,
including the first deputy head of the presidential administration,
Vladislav Surkov. Political commentator Khadjimurad Kamalov describes Magomedov as experienced, exceptionally well-educated, pragmatic, and capable of making tough decisions.
Magomedsalam
Magomedov, the only Dargin among the five candidates, is the son of
Aliyev's predecessor as president, Magomedali Magomedov, and a former
parliament speaker. His inclusion on the list is presumably pro forma,
so there is at least one Dargin candidate given that, for whatever
reasons, Amirov was omitted.
Saygidguseyn Magomedov, an Avar,
heads the Daghestan subsidiary of the federal treasury. He too is said
to have close ties to the Kremlin; specifically, he is believed to
enjoy the support of National Security Council Secretary and former
Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Nikolai Patrushev.
In addition, according to State Duma Deputy Khizri Shikhsaidov, he has a profound knowledge
of Daghestan and its various ethnic groups. In the last years of
Magomedali Magomedov's presidency, Saygidguseyn Magomedov enjoyed the
support of a group of prominent local Avar leaders in northern
Daghestan, including Khasavyurt Mayor Saygidpasha Umakhanov, who
constituted the domestic opposition to Magomedov. Saygidguseyn
Magomedov was on the shortlist of candidates to succeed Magomedali
Magomedov in 2006.
At its last session for the current year, Daghestan's parliament adopted
on November 26 by a vote of 46 in favor (51 deputies were present of
the total 72) an appeal to Medvedev to hold further "consultations"
about the most suitable candidate for the post of republican president.
The parliament members argued that not all five candidates
listed possess the authority, experience, and the track record of
achievement required by a future president. But within 24 hours, at
least some of the deputies backed down: Nikolai Alchiyev, who heads the
United Russia Daghestan parliament faction, posted a statement on the
party's website late on November 27 affirming his conviction that
President Medvedev will reach a "correct and wise decision."
This
was reportedly only the second occasion since the abolition in 2004 of
direct elections for federation subject heads that a regional
parliament has taken issue with the list of possible candidates and appealed to the Russian president to amend it.
Behind-closed-door
talks in Makhachkala on November 29 failed to yield a consensus on the
most appropriate candidate, or on adding further names to the list. But
on December 3, parliament speaker Magomed Suleymanov released a
statement denying that the Daghestan parliament deputies' appeal to
Medvedev was intended as an "act of defiance," and affirming that they
will endorse whichever candidate Medvedev proposes.
Makhachkala
Mayor Amirov, who is confined to a wheelchair as a result of injuries
received during one of several failed assassination attempts, is an
experienced manager and undoubtedly one of the most influential
political figures in the republic. He is also one of a very few
Daghestani politicians to criticize Aliyev publicly, most recently
during the panic that gripped Makhachkala in August in the wake of a
string of murders of police officers by the resistance.
But
the municipal authorities' chronic inability to provide the city's
population with uninterrupted energy supplies is a black mark against
him: Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin criticized him for that failing two months ago.
Some
Daghestani political figures nonetheless consider Amirov more capable
of imposing some semblance of order than Aliyev, who is 69 and, rumor
has it, a heavy drinker. In early November, Daghestan's deputies to the
Russian State Duma reportedly sent a formal appeal to Gryzlov arguing
that "only a decisive and influential politician with authority and
trusted by the people" can change the situation in the republic for the
better, They named
Amirov as the most qualified candidate. But several of the eight
deputies said to have signed the appeal subsequently denied any
knowledge of it.
There is no consensus among experts as to the
most likely decision. Some think Medvedev will back Aliyev for a second
term rather than risk exacerbating the already precarious status quo;
others believe that Medvedev might reject all five proposed candidates
and instead opt for a relative unknown from the "power" ministries, as
he did last year when selecting Yunus-Bek Yevkurov to succeed Murat
Zyazikov as president of Ingushetia.
Cynics suggest that the
amount any would-be candidate can pay in sweeteners to Kremlin fixers
is more likely to influence Medvedev's final choice than candidates'
qualifications.
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