July 25, 2009
Can Chechen Talks Bring Peace To North Caucasus?
by Liz Fuller
Representatives of the Chechen Republic Ichkeria (ChRI) government in
exile and the pro-Moscow Chechen Republic announced on July 24 that
they have embarked on consultations aimed at promoting national
reconciliation in Chechnya.
But can this process bring an end to the ongoing fighting across the North Caucasus?
Speaking
on July 24 at a press conference in Oslo, Akhmed Zakayev, who since
late 2007 has served as head of the Chechen Republic Ichkeria (ChRI)
government-in-exile, confirmed that he is holding "consultations" with
representatives of the pro-Moscow Chechen Republic with the aim of
promoting national reconciliation.
The conference followed two
days of talks between Zakayev and pro-Moscow Chechen representatives,
including parliament speaker Dukvakha Abdurakhmanov, who is very close
to Chechen Republic head Ramzan Kadyrov.
The two sides had met
for the first time in Oslo four weeks ago, and plan a third round of
talks in 10-14 days' time in London, where Zakayev has lived since
being granted political asylum in Britain in 2002.
Ivar
Amundsen, the head of the London-based Chechen Peace Forum, mediated
the two rounds of consultations in Oslo. He told RFE/RL's North
Caucasus Service that this week's talks were "a very constructive and
positive dialogue" that the two sides hope will lead to the "reshaping
of the political stability of Chechnya."
Amundsen said the talks
are important because they have Kadyrov's backing and therefore, by
extension, that of the Kremlin. This, Amundsen said, is an indicator
that Moscow has finally acknowledged that dialogue is the only
realistic approach to promoting peace, and that Zakayev is an asset
that can be used in this process.
"This dialogue, which
has been non-accepted by the Russian authorities until now, is suddenly
accepted as the only realistic approach," Amundsen said.
In his
statement to the July 24 press conference, Chechen parliament speaker
Abdurakhmanov stressed that both Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin support the peace initiative.
Zakayev's Return?Over
the past 12 months, Chechen Republic head Kadyrov has repeatedly
claimed to be in contact with Zakayev. He has hinted on several
occasions that Zakayev is ready to return to Chechnya in some official
capacity. On June 28, he set a one-month deadline for Zakayev to make
up his mind. But Zakayev told RFE/RL's Russian Service that his
possible return to Chechnya was not discussed in Oslo.
"We did
not discuss the issue of my personal return or my employment. Those are
only speculations, guesses, and interpretations by journalists and
political analysts," Zakayev said.
Zakayev is a representative
of the moderate secular wing within the government of ChRI President
Aslan Maskhadov. He fought as a member of the Chechen resistance at the
start of the 1999 war before leaving Russia, but Kadyrov has publicly
exonerated him from charges of committing war crimes.
In
February, General Aleksandr Safronov, who is President Medvedev's
special adviser on international cooperation to counter terrorism,
hinted that Zakayev might be granted an amnesty if he succeeds in
proving his innocence in a Russian court.
In late 2005, Zakayev
engaged in a heated polemic with radical Chechen ideologues, including
Press and Information Minister Movladi Udugov, who even then rejected
the concept of an independent Chechen state in favor of an Islamic
state encompassing the entire North Caucasus, and who argued that
resistance fighters should not be constrained by the norms of
international law.
In December 2007, one month after then ChRI
President and resistance commander Doku Umarov turned his back on the
cause of Chechen independence and proclaimed a North Caucasus emirate
that he claimed to head, Zakayev told RFE/RL's North Caucasus Service
that what is needed above all is unity among the various Chechen
factions.
In that respect, Zakayev clearly regards Kadyrov as
a tactical ally in the fight against the militant "emirate" faction,
which Kadyrov has vowed to eliminate at all cost. In an interview with
Chechenpress in February, Zakayev said that today it is Kadyrov who is
best placed to initiate a process that would lead to the consolidation
of Chechen society and to the drafting of a political platform for
defining relations with Russia that would be acceptable to all sides.
Chechnya SpilloverAmundsen
on July 24 described the Oslo talks as being conducted between "the
only two relevant factions" in Chechnya. At the same time, he stressed
that Zakayev still commands considerable respect in Chechnya.
Both
those statements may, however, be wishful thinking. Indeed, Kadyrov's
desire to bring Zakayev home may be motivated in part by the desire to
demonstrate that he does not enjoy any such influence.
What
possible impact the talks between Zakayev and Kadyrov's emissaries
might have on the situation on the ground is also open to debate. The
ongoing fighting spilled over years ago from Chechnya to the other
North Caucasus republics.
Many, if not most, of the young
fighters in Ingushetia, Daghestan, and Kabardino-Balkaria are motivated
by Islamic ideology. Even the younger generation of fighters in
Chechnya may not recognize Zakayev as a moral or political authority --
if indeed they know who he is.
The Oslo talks are nonetheless of
primary significance as the latest in a series of indications that
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is rethinking his approach to
Chechnya in particular, and to stabilizing the North Caucasus in
general.
In recent weeks, Medvedev has signaled his support
for acting Ingushetian President Rashid Gaysanov, who advocates a
significantly softer approach than Kadyrov with regard to the North
Caucasus resistance. Speaking at a Moscow press conference on July 7,
Gaysanov argued that every effort should be made to persuade young
fighters to lay down their arms, rather than kill them without mercy,
which is Kadyrov's preferred strategy.
Medvedev has also
approved as Dagestan's new Interior Minister the candidate favored by
President Mukhu Aliyev. Aliyev has repeatedly questioned the
effectiveness of indiscriminate reprisals by police against devout and
law-abiding young Muslim men.
Many observers have concluded
that such brutality is counterproductive, and serves only to alienate
young Muslims and drive them to join the resistance. The new minister,
a career Federal Security Service (FSB) officer, is seen as likely to
break with that strategy.
Zakayev acknowledged in an interview
with RFE/RL's Russian Service on July 24 that the violence has spread
beyond Chechnya to encompass the entire North Caucasus. He argued that
it cannot be stopped until "the two sides that are trying to defend
their respective positions by force," presumably meaning Moscow and its
designated leaders in the region and the North Caucasus resistance,
agree to talks.
Whether he sees a role for himself
representing the pro-Moscow leadership in such talks is unclear.
Similarly unclear is whether, and under what conditions, Umarov would
agree to such a dialogue. In a recent interview, Umarov said he did not
trust any peace overture by Moscow.
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