From: MSN NicknameEagle_wng  (Original Message)    Sent: 12/7/2007 5:14 AM
Opinion poll in Grozny: 39% believe new war in Chechnya is possible; 32% prefer Zubkov and only 11% Putin as Russia’s next president

PRAGUE, 4 December - On 5-11 November 2007 information agency “Caucasus Times” conducted regular opinion poll among the residents of Chechen capital Grozny. Major goal of this research was to explore the attitudes of the population of Grozny towards the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections in Russia. Separate questions were asked about people’s attitudes towards changes in social, economic and security situation in Chechnya during R. Kadyrov’s presidency. In addition, media preferences of the people in Grozny were also explored. In total, 200 residents of Chechen capital of different ages, sex and professions have been polled.

Responding to a question on “are, in your opinion, the upcoming in December 2007 State Duma elections going to have any impact on situation in Chechnya and if so, what impact?”, 44% of respondents stated that Duma elections are not going to have any impact on their republic. Significantly less number of respondents believe that parliamentary elections will result in any impact. Thus, 17% expected that elections would have “positive impact”, 14% - “rather positive impact”, 6% - “rather negative impact” and 8% - “negative impact”. 11% reported difficulties in answering this question. It should be noticed that widespread sceptical approach towards Duma elections influenced respondents’ behavior during the interviews. Many of those polled were rather critical about the ongoing in Chechnya advertising campaign of various political parties. In view of those respondents, financial resources which are being spent for this advertising campaign could have been used for other, more practical needs.

Respondents’ reaction to a question on “which party would you like to vote for during Duma elections?” revealed electoral leadership of pro-Kremlin “Unified Russia”, which proved to be much more popular tnan any other political party in Russia. 26% of those polled expressed their readiness to vote for “Unified Russia” while 16% are going to vote for KPRF, which turned out to be the second most popular party in Chechen capital. Among other recognizable and popular parties in Grozny were “Yabloko” (14%); “Just Russia” (11%) and Zhirinovsky’s LDPR (8%). 1% of respondents supported “Another Russia”. At the same time, popularity of “Unified Russia” turned out to be considerably lower than in the capitals of some other North Caucasus republics. Thus, during opinion poll in the capital of neighboring Ingushetia Nazran in October 2007, 30% supported “Unified Russia” while during the opinion poll in Kabardino-Balkarian capital of Nalchik in August 2007 43% of respondents said they were going to vote for “Unified Russia”.

Attitudes of the residents of Grozny towards presidential elections in Russia and their ability to influence situation in Chechnya proved to be rather sceptical. 44% of respondents were certain that presidential elections are not going to have any impact on situation in their republic. In the meantime, 20% felt that elections would have positive influence and 8% - “rather positive influence”. Only 2% noted that presidential elections would have negative consequences and 12% - “rather negative” consequences.

Poll results indicate that presidential preferences of the residents of Grozny and residents of the capitals of other neighboring North Caucasus republics are quite different. Thus, opinion polls in Nazran (Ingushetia) and in Nalchik (Kabardino-Balkaria) showed that majority of those polled preferred Putin as Russia’s next president (39% of respondents in Nazran and 56% in Nalchik indicated that they prefer Putin as the next president of Russia). By contrast, only 11% of the respondents in Grozny said they would like to have Putin as next Russia’s president. Current Russian Prime Minister V. Zubkov with 32% proved to be the most popular presidential candidate among population of Grozny. In their oral comments, respondents stressed they particularly appreciate Zubkov for his “tough and uncompromised” stance toward ministers and other high Russian officials. S. Ivanov (14%) turned out the second most popular Russian presidential candidate in Grozny. R. Khasbulatov, former speaker of Russian Supreme Soviet (13%) was the third most popular candidate.

Current Russian president V. Putin with 11% proved to be only the fourth the most popular presidential candidate among residents of Grozny. Among other politicians that were mentioned by respondents as possible Russia’s presidents were V. Zhirinovsky (7%), G. Zyuganov (6%) and D. Medvedev (2%). It is worth noting that nobody out of those polled in Grozny mentioned current Chechen president R. Kadyrov as possible Russia’s president.


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Responding to a question about possible changes in social and economic situation in Chechnya during Kadyrov’s presidency, almost one third of respondents (30%) indicated that situation improved and 17% - “rather improved”. At the same time, 11% felt that social an economic conditions “rather deteriorated” and 13% - “deteriorated”. 18% of respondents stated that there were no changes. 11% found it hard to answer this question.

Changes that occurred in Chechnya in security sphere during Kadyrov’s rule were evaluated by the respondents much less positively. Most of those polled (39%) indicated that there were no changes in security situation. 19% pointed out that security situation improved and 9% - “rather improved”. At the same time, in view of 14% of respondents, security situation deteriorated. 7% thought that situation in security sphere “rather deteriorated. 12% reported difficulties in providing response to that question.

Respondents’ reaction to a question on whether “do they consider new war in Chechnya possible” demonstrated that pessimistic expactations concerning the future of their republic are still quite widespread among residents of Chechen capital. 39% of respondents noticed that they consider new war in Chechnya possible and 18% - “rather possible”. Only 12% are certain that the new war in Chechnya is not possible while 20% think that new war is “rather impossible”. 11% could not answer this question. Providing explanation to their pessimism concerning the possibility of a new war in Chechnya, many respondents connected that possibility with the actions and behaviour of current Chechen president, who was criticized by many repsondents for his arbitrary rule, for sacking republican officials without any explanation and for the growing cult of Kadyrov’s personality in the republic.

Respondents’ concerns connected with the possibility of a new wave of violance in Chechnya manifested in their responces to a question on “whether are you going to move to other Russia’s region or abroad for permanent residence?”. Thus, one third of those polled stated that they are going to leave Chechnya and to move to other Russian region or abroad for permanent residence. 11% noticed that they did not exclude such a possibility. Only 12% of those polled were certian about their readiness to stay in Chechnya while 35% noticed they tended to stay in their republic. 9% of respondents found it hard to answer that question. It should be mentioned that young people who want to get education outside Chechnya and those who did not receive financial compensation for war damages from federal authorities dominated among those respondents who were going to leave Chechnya.

Separate question was asked about situation with killings and kidnappings in Chechnya during Kadyrov’s presidency. Almost half of the respondents (48%) remarked that situation in this sphere did not change. In view of 16% of respondents, situation in this sphere became even worse. 14% thought that situation “rather deteriorated”. At the same time, 13% felt that situation in this field became better and 9% indicated it “rather improved”.

Respondents’ answers to a question about their main sources of information also revealed significant differences between residents of Grozny and residents of other capitals of North Caucasus republics. Thus, while in Nazran and Nalchik televison is the most important source of information for overwhelming majority of people, most respondents in Grozny (40%) indicated print media as their major information source. Among the most popular newspapers were indicated “Novaya Gazeta” (33%) and local newspaper “Groznensky Rabochii” (7%).

36% of respondents said television is their major source of information. Among most popular TV channels were NTV (13%), ChGTRK “Vainakh” (11%), RTR (10%) and ORT (2%). Friends and relatives (13%) proved to be the third most popular source of news and information. 7% of those polled indicated Internet as their major information source. Among the most popular sites were “Kavkaz-Centr” (4%) and site of “Chechnya Svobodnaya” (3%). International television (television channel Euronews) was mentioned as major source of news and information by 4% of respondents.
Caucasus Times
http://www.caucasustimes.com/article.asp?id=13556