Paul Goble
Staunton, July 14 – The Pugachev events like "a magic crystal” allow one to look into Russia’s future, a future that will involve either an authoritarian disintegration resembling that of the former Yugoslavia and likely extending over several years or a democratic one that could occur more quickly and easily, according to a Russian analyst now living abroad.
In a 2000-word article posted on Inache.net on Friday, Leonid Storch bases his conclusion on three aspects of contemporary Russian life: First, the share of the Russian population that benefits from and therefore is willing to support the current regime is declining, especially in the regions outside of Moscow (inache.net/mnogo/793/).
Second, the regime is unwilling to conduct dialogue about or even acknowledge the presence of three distinct conflicts – between liberalism and authoritarianism, between the regions and Moscow, and among ethnic groups – and the propensity of these conflicts to coalesce thus making the resolution ...
