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JULY 2009


Prague Watchdog: And Then There Were Three... (Weekly Review)

posted by eagle on July, 2009 as ANALYSIS / OPINION


June 30th 2009 · Prague Watchdog / Vadim Borshchev ·  ALSO AVAILABLE IN: RUSSIAN 

And then there were three... (weekly review)

By Vadim Borshchev, special to Prague Watchdog

Recently Ramzan Kadyrov has been painting the image of the enemy in terms that are contradictory and changeable, but interesting none the less. A highlight of the information on the life and work of the mujahedin which Chechnya’s head generously shared with us last week was the sensational news of a sharp reduction in the enemy’s numbers. While earlier Kadyrov had counted 70 warriors in the ranks of the insurgents, on Saturday June 27 that figure was radically altered. On the territory of the republic, according to its leader, "the problem of the liquidation of the illegal armed formations has practically been solved. Only some two dozen fighters remain in the hills." As to where the other 50 had “evaporated" to, there was not a word.

The new calculations appear to be based more on Kadyrov’s faith in the magical power of arithmetic than on ...


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Window On Eurasia: Most Russians Back Pikalevo Residents But May Not Follow Their Example

posted by eagle on as ANALYSIS / OPINION


TUESDAY, JUNE 30, 2009

Window on Eurasia: Most Russians Back Pikalevo Residents But May Not Follow Their Example

Paul Goble

Vienna, June 30 – Three out of four Russians say they support the actions by Pikalevo residents, including blocking a highway, intended to force the firms to pay them what they were owed; but a majority believe that the situation was resolved only by Vladimir Putin’s personal intervention, and fewer than one in five are prepared to take part in similar protests.
Those figures have convinced some Moscow analysts that Pikalevo will not cast a large shadow on Russia’s future, but because there are more than 400 such company towns there and because the economic situation in many is increasingly bleak, precisely that combination could prove explosive if the powers that be are not able everywhere and always to intervene. 
Today, the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion, a Moscow survey agency with close ties to the Russian government released the results of a June 20-21 poll on ...

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Window On Eurasia: Russian Experts Divided On Probability Of New War With Georgia

posted by eagle on as ANALYSIS / OPINION


WEDNESDAY, JULY 1, 2009

Window on Eurasia: Russian Experts Divided on Probability of New War with Georgia

Paul Goble

Vienna, July 1 – As Moscow continues a military exercise in the North Caucasus that it says is designed to prevent conflicts, one leading Russian expert says that the probability of a new war between Russia and Georgia may be as high as 80 percent, while another suggests that such predictions themselves constitute “a dangerous provocation.”
Because Moscow’s invasion of Georgia in August 2008 followed summer Russian military maneuvers in the North Caucasus, its current maneuvers in the region have led many in Moscow, Tbilisi and elsewhere to speculate that the course of events last summer will be repeated during this one.
In an article on the Kavkaz-uzel.ru portal today, two leading analysts square off on the likelihood of a new military conflict, with Sergey Markedonov, a leading Russian specialist on the Caucasus, arguing there is unlikely to be a war and Pavel Felgengauer, a prominent military affairs commentator, presenting the ...

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