Recently published results of international research indicate that Russia is now experiencing a new wave of instability. Therefore, Moscow's influence in the CIS is markedly reduced under the pressure of China, the EU and the US. The collapse of Russia into separate parts is predicted.
The raw economy with a low quality of public administration transforms Russia into a victim of a new crisis. Its status as a regional leader in post-Soviet space is now turned out to be under the threat. This has been evidenced by the results of international studies entitled "Post-crisis Development Models", conducted by the Institute for Contemporary Studies (INSOR), Russian paper Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports.
The international study has been prepared in a survey of almost 300 experts from 57 countries - including China, Japan, India, USA and Russia.
The Group of Experts was formed as of economists, scientists, financial analysts, owners of leading companies, as well as from politicians, bureaucrats.
The vast majority of experts surveyed (approximately 85%) expect a new wave of crisis in the coming decades, which in any case would finally finish Russia off as a country. However, many experts have called 2009 not just a turning point of the crisis, but the beginning of a long process of disintegration of Russia.
And if the underlying causes of the current crisis lie in the financial sector, the reasons for the next crisis lie in the civilizational (geopolitical) area. A new Crisis, which foreign experts mention, will be accompanied by a redistribution of economic spheres of influence, as well as the acute competition for resources and technology leadership.
Among the losers will be countries with poor governance, unstable economies and declining populations, whom even their feedstock or weapons will not help. International experts with such conclusions see crash and the collapse of Russia, which meets all the criteria of potential victims of future crisis.
Experts are unanimous: the raw way of development and inefficient state administration is seriously weakening Russia's position in the post-Soviet space, make it unattractive for cooperation and unauthoritative for making integration decisions. The danger of loss of economic influence of Russia in the CIS reported in early March of this year by the experts of the INSOR in the report entitled "Economic interests and objectives of Russia in the CIS".
Competition from EU, USA, China and Turkey entails the degradation of economic relations between Russia and the CIS countries. This is manifested, for instance, in the drastic reduction - and a half to two times - the share of Russian exports of highly processed in total imports of CIS.
"Russia is no longer uncontested strategic partner for joint development of the Commonwealth. Economically, the China and the EU especially, are ready to this role", experts at the INSOR say. Moreover, at foreign markets, Russia and other CIS countries appear on a number of products - mainly raw materials - as competitors rather than partners, which intensify opposition between them.
Department of Monitoring,
Kavkaz Center
