October 29, 2009
Working With Russia To Prevent Eurasian Collapse
by Andrei Tsygankov
The Eurasian region continues to disintegrate, and neither Russia nor
the West has been able to arrest the destabilizing dynamics.
Evidence
of rising instability throughout the region include the August 2008
Russia-Georgia war, renewed terrorist attacks in the North Caucasus,
the persistent failure of Western forces to stabilize Afghanistan, the
inability of Central Asian rulers to reign in local clans and drug
lords, and the paralysis of legitimately elected bodies of power in
Ukraine and Moldova.
Violence is gradually spreading, waiting
for an opportunity to erupt into a large-scale conflict. Transregional
transportation routes may soon be choked due to Russia's conflicts with
Ukraine, Georgia, and Turkmenistan.
The West's attempts to
secure and stabilize Eurasia after the end of the Cold War must be
recognized as a failure. In the mid-1990s, U.S. geostrategists such as
Zbigniew Brzezinski recommended that the United States pursue a policy
of replacing Russia as the referee and protector of the newly
established non-Russian states in the region. After initial hesitation,
the United States and other Western states followed this advice.
Yet
Eurasia has not become stable or peaceful and continues to
disintegrate. The bureaucrats in Washington and Brussels have failed to
understand that they lack the resources, the will, and the experience
to stabilize the complex region. Today -- after the Iraq war and the
global financial crisis -- the United States is beginning to recognize
its overextension, but it is not at all clear if Washington and
Brussels are prepared to act differently in Eurasia.
Russia's Absence Felt
Russia,
too, has contributed to the Eurasian meltdown. The Soviet collapse and
the subsequent retreat of Russia from the region have greatly
destabilized the area. By the time Vladimir Putin assumed power in
2000, Moscow's severely undermined position in the region was obvious
to everyone, especially after a wave of terrorist attacks took place in
Chechnya and other parts of Russia.
The relative recovery of the
Russian economy during the post-Yeltsin decade began to revive Russia's
standing in Eurasia, yet Moscow could ill afford serious efforts to
stabilize and pacify the region.
At best, the Kremlin could
defend its core interests abroad and begin to escape the alternative of
an unstable society, dwindling population, and truncated sovereignty.
By capitalizing on high oil prices, it could also advocate multilateral
arrangements in the region and strengthen its presence in neighboring
economies and energy companies worldwide.
Preventing a collapse
in Eurasia requires recognizing Russia's role in stabilizing the
region. Once this is done in practice, and not rhetorically, many
pieces of the region's puzzle may start falling into place. Energy
supplies may become more reliable; governments in politically contested
areas -- like Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova -- may obtain a greater
legitimacy; and the so-called frozen conflicts may have a better
opportunity to be resolved.
Russia's recent resurgence is a
response to its lacking recognition as a vital power and partner of the
West. If Russia chooses to dedicate itself to obstructing Western
policies in Eurasia, we will see more of the collapsing dynamics in the
region. Ukraine and Moldova may disintegrate, as did Georgia. Central
Asia and Azerbaijan are likely to be subjected to a much greater degree
of instability with unpredictable consequences. Russia too will suffer
greatly as its modernization processes will be derailed. In short, the
region may change beyond recognition -- and possibly through the use of
force.
Spirit Of Cooperation
Non-Russian
powers too must become involved as participants in establishing a
collective-security arrangement in Eurasia. From a security
perspective, it is important that the two most prominent actors in the
region -- NATO and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) --
develop a joint assessment of threat and closely coordinate their
policies.
Instead of expanding its reach further, NATO ought
to learn its limitations. Without the full-fledged involvement of the
SCO, Afghanistan is likely to turn into another version of Iraq, with
additional negative implications for the U.S. reputation in the world.
Another
key issue is energy security. A new, shared understanding of energy
challenges must be reached that would encourage mutual respect for each
side's critical interests. Viewing Russia as a potentially reliable
alternative to traditional Middle Eastern sources of energy may serve
the West and members of the region better than the image of a
"neo-imperialist" bully that only seeks to subvert its neighbors'
policies.
Trying to persuade European countries to invest
additional billions into the Nabucco pipeline in order to bypass Russia
may well turn out to be a waste of money and time. A more important and
potentially unifying idea for all the parties would be to engage in the
development of acceptable rules and principles of energy security among
Eurasia's powers.
Finally, to restore the region's capacity to
function and perform basic services for its residents, it is critical
to curb Russophobic nationalism. While rebuilding a Russia-centered
empire would be very dangerous, there is hardly an alternative to the
emergence of an economically and culturally transparent community of
nations with strong ties to the former metropole.
Russians and
other ethnic minorities must be able freely to travel, develop their
linguistic and religious traditions, and celebrate their historically
significant events. The overall objective of the outside world should
be to strengthen Russia's confidence as a regional great power, while
discouraging it from engaging in revisionist behavior.
Andrei
Tsygankov is a professor of international relations at San Francisco
State University. The views expressed in this commentary are the
author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of RFE/RL
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty © 2009 RFE/RL, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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