Worldview: What mind-set will dominate Obama's visit to Russia

By Trudy Rubin

Inquirer Opinion Columnist

But Obama is scheduled only for a breakfast with Vladimir Putin, the former president and current prime minister, who still controls the levers of power.

Putin took the lesser title because the constitution forbade another consecutive term as president; most Russians expect he'll return to the top job sooner rather than later. In the meantime, Medvedev is regarded as a weak front man.

Yet Obama's hopes of revamping U.S.-Russia relations will depend on which mentality dominates Russia's response to his proposals: the Cold War outlook of former KGB officer Putin, or the more open outlook Medvedev seems to hold.

Many skeptics say they believe there isn't much difference between the two men, especially on foreign policy. There are serious disputes between the two nations, on NATO expansion and missile defenses, and how to deal with Iran's nuclear program.

Still, Obama wants to "reset" relations with Moscow (even if the State Department couldn't accurately translate that term into Russian). The president will focus on how the two countries can advance common interests. Among these: thwarting radical Islamists and preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

His prospects depend on whether Russia's outlook shifts, even slightly, from Putinesque to Medvedevesque.

"Medvedev is not Putin," said Boris Nemtsov, deputy prime minister under President Boris Yeltsin, told the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. "Medvedev has no mentality of the Cold War. He has no KGB experience, which is great and he has experience in the private sector, which is very important."

Indeed, Medvedev seems to grasp that Russia's dependence on energy exports and its lack of rule of law will doom it to the status of underdeveloped petro-state. Such a state cannot become part of the Western community of nations, though Putin claims he seeks this goal.

Putin, however, views relations with the United States through a Cold War prism. Russian leaders (and a public heavily dependent for news on state-run television) "think of the world in zero-sum terms," says Michael McFaul, White House adviser on Russia. If America gains, Russians think they lose, and if America loses, Russia gains.

The result: Even in areas where the two countries share interests - such as preventing Tehran from acquiring warheads that could reach Moscow - the Kremlin will choose to spite America. Nemtsov describes Putin's Iran policy thusly: "Ahmadinejad is an enemy of America, which is great."

All is not bleak. Moscow just said it would allow the United States to ship weapons via its territories to Afghanistan (although this potentially gives the Kremlin critical leverage).

And Russia may agree to renew the so-called START treaty - which calls for respective cuts in nuclear weapons - but this represents a continuation of a Cold War balance between enemies, rather than a fresh start.

No one expects Obama to dent this outlook in one visit. But he'll try to counter zero-sum thinking, by directly addressing Russians (polls say public interest in the president is enormous), and in his meetings with Medvedev.

Here are some signs that will indicate whether any progress has been made.

The rule of law: Obama will give an interview to Novaya Gazeta, the paper where murdered journalist Anna Politkovskaya worked. She was a crusader for justice in Chechnya, which made Putin disdain her.

Medvedev, too, gave an interview to Novaya Gazeta, raising hopes the Kremlin might finally address repeated attacks and killings of journalists and human rights activists. This has not happened. Will the situation change after Obama's visit?

Judicial reform: Medvedev promised to reform a system where Kremlin leaders can still hold political show trials. Case in point: the second prosecution of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, formerly Russia's leading oil magnate, which will be going on during Obama's visit.

Already jailed for years in Siberia on bogus charges, Khodorkovsky's real crime appears to have been funding opposition parties. Will Medvedev intervene, and show he means to keep his promise to make Russia's judicial system fair?

Iran: Russia, which has its own Islamist problem, should be eager to contain Tehran. Will it finally join with Washington in curbing Tehran's rush toward nuclear-weapons capability?

Missile defenses in Europe: Will Russians agree to work together with the United States on joint missile defenses against a future threat from radical Islamists? Such a move, says Dmitri Trenin, of the Carnegie Endowment's Moscow Center, would signal a true shift in Russian thinking. It "would cut at the very foundation of the founding myth of Russia's strategic posture, which says the United States has a hidden agenda [to] destroy Russia."

This is the kind of cooperation Obama will propose. The reaction to his visit will give clues as to whether Russia wants to look forward or backward. Stay tuned.

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