Vigen Hakobyan: Crisis is in shore of Russia: death of multi-vector policy and vacuum of power

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Global economic crisis, which began with the crash of American model of "capitalization air bubble ", make corrections in the global political landscape. Brownian movement is observed in the zone of Russia’s direct influence. While new US power tries to erect again the global architecture, the post-soviet republics already lost any possibility of balance in foreign policy and foreign economy.

The temporal withdraw of the USA from the post-soviet area, like an outflow, allowed to look over the deep problems of neighboring with Russia countries, including Baltic States. Majority from them showed a total absence of (sovereign) immunity and a little bit well coordinated mechanisms of crisis resistance.

It is possible to certify that only Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Belarus, among all posts-soviet republics had gained chances on relative stability since their independence. If the first three countries can bless nature which provided them with hydrocarbon resources, then Belarus had very sufficiently used its soviet industrial potential, and also the location as a transit country. Only Ukraine could compete with Belarus in these fields, but irresponsibility of the Ukrainian leadership destroyed the country’s future.

Due to a crisis, Russia can strengthen its influence in near abroad. Instinct of state self-protection compel the post-soviet republics to leave ambitions, fed by the American granting injections into export-import elites, and return to the primary source of wealth and security, to (strong) Russia. Fast of all it was done by Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, which hardly managed to overdo in the popular “multi-vector policy quiz”.

Georgia and Ukraine are in the most difficult situation. They entered a crisis without political and economic sovereignty. Georgia, in addition, faced a power shock and territorial division. Today, the future of these two countries depends on the rehabilitation speed of policy planning center, in other words the USA. Taking into account the deepness of crisis into American economy itself, Kiev and Tbilisi could hardly wait for the magic.

Meantime, Europe, facing lack of distinct signals from Washington concerning long-term strategy of relations development with the post-soviet states, would act with caution to Moscow and concentrate on own security issues, in other words to distance itself from the third countries’ problems.

As for energy, the deficit of political investments, the industry and prices on hydrocarbons slack period will relegate to the background such expensive and risky projects as NABUCCO. The direct and more clear project of gas transit to Europe form Iran via Turkey could appear, instead of difficult and combined gas pipelines system through concerned “multi-vector” post-soviet republics. Recent action taken by the Turkish authorities testify the intention to move closer to  Iran, till the USA is facing a deep knock-down (and there is a risk of two mores in Iraq and Afghanistan).

Kyrgyzstan declared intention concerning the termination the term of US airbase Manas in consideration of credit tranche from   Russia is a clear example of republic’s foreign policy co-ordinates system upset. It seems that deal-making process with Americans round the fate of Manas airbase did not take place, but it does not mean that the deal would not start at any appropriate for Washington moment and on conditions, offered by the United States.

A demarche of Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon, cancelling his visit to Moscow is fixing the start of new game between Russia and Iran. Tajikistan had made this choice due to awareness of his competition position weakness in comparison with Uzbekistan.

The foreign policy of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, like oil and gas, is flowing in the same direction, where is situated functioning pipe. Retargeting these countries requires huge expenses, comparable with the total political and economic cost of pipe lying on the Caspian seafloor. At the moment these expenses are intolerable for the Western countries. Harsh activation of China is also impossible here, because China prefers to take an occasion and develop its strategic advantage on higher circle — directly inside American economy.

An economic crisis will lead to growth of radicalism in the Azerbaijan policy. Public disappointment concerning the pledged, but frustrated economic wonder could be reoriented into patriotic track, that fraught the resumption of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It should be noted, that the beginning of 1990th was the active phase of military operations in this region, in other words it was a time of socio-economic catastrophe. Today, the foreign policy of Azerbaijan would be aimed at creation and withholding of balance between Russia and Turkey by overwhelming economic advantage of the Turkish side. Supporting activity towards Russian direction has just one goal – to maximally neutralize Russian influence in Armenia. Herewith, Baku will increase its economic predomination in Georgia. Moreover, Baku and Ankara will work simultaneously concerning Georgia.

Moldavia also is verging towards serious shocks. The crisis reached this country at the pre-election stage. President Voronin shows activity towards Russia, because he does not see the perspectives of sovereign coexistence with Romania. Victory of nationalists in Moldavia will lead to smooth absorption of the country by the Romanian “big brother”. The communist regime regeneration gives chances to maintain the status quo in Transdnestr conflict and preventive degradation of Moldavia as a state. It is possible to “deceive” those in Russia, who wants to be mistaken about Voronin’s negotiability. But, it is impossible to deceive a crisis.

This scenario around Russia will develop according described logic only in case if Russia would hold control over its domestic situation, not complicating a global crisis by showing its weakness or inefficiency. The crisis “outflow” is unavoidable fact, but Russia’s returning is only a possibility. By the global decrease of Russian weight, the political scales in post-soviet area will turn in the benefit of Russia.

They in Washington could not fail to worry concerning the scenario of complete evacuation of the USA from Eurasia. This scenario does not seem to be utopia, taking into account the withdraw of Americans from Iraq, which entails Turkish-Iranian rapprochement against Israel, increasing problems in Pakistan, decentralization of US influence in Europe and CIS countries, economic dictate of China.