February 18, Russia Profile
Bagapsh Might Not Really Be a Moscow Puppet, but His Current Isolation Gives Him Little Choice
On a trip to Moscow on
Wednesday Sergey Bagapsh, the president of the rebel region Abkhazia,
inked a raft of deals with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev,
including one that will establish a joint military ground force in the
breakaway Georgian republic. Georgia winced and NATO wagged its finger.
The ten bilateral deals, apparently signed to improve Abkhazia’s
security, include plans to upgrade an existing Russian base. Bagapsh
also said the breakaway republic hopes to join the Belarus, Kazakhstan
and Russia Customs Union.
Days after president Bagapsh was
inaugurated for his second term as president of the breakaway Georgian
republic, he embarked on a three-day visit to Moscow. He was received
by Dmitry Medvedev at the Kremlin yesterday to commemorate 200 years
since Abkhazia, on one of a number of past occasions, was absorbed into
the Russian empire.
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Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh talks with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow. |
In the run-up to this historic moment,
the leader of the breakaway republic made some appropriate – and
somewhat far-fetched – suggestions of how to further interweave Russian
and Abkhaz futures, for instance bringing Abkhazia into the Belarus,
Russia and Kazakhstan Customs Union (even though neither Minsk nor
Astana have recognized Abkhazia as a sovereign state). Bagapsh also
suggested that restrictions might be lifted to allow Russians to buy up
Abkhazia’s prize real estate on the shores of the Black Sea where the
Soviet elite used to go on vacation, the Kommersant news daily reported.
During the meeting, the leaders signed
in a raft of deals on bilateral cooperation between Russia and the
rebel region, recognized only by Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela and
speck-on-the-map-in-the-middle-of-the-Pacific-Ocean Nauru.
Among other things, the presidents
agreed to renovate the existing Russian military base at Gudauta, 37
kilometers north of Sukhumi, where 1,700 Russian troops are presently
stationed. According to the deal, the base on the shores of the
strategically important Black Sea will then host a "joint” ground force
for the next 49 years. The accord will be renewed automatically every
15 years from then on, Itar-Tass reported.
The ten accords were promptly condemned
by a disgruntled West. "All agreements reached between Russia and the
regions of Georgia are invalid,” said Carmen Romero, the deputy
spokesperson for NATO. Meanwhile Irakli Tuzhba, a spokesperson for the
Abkhazian Foreign Ministry, insisted that the base and Russian troops
are necessary to provide security.
Alexei Malashenko, a Caucasus expert
for Carnegie Moscow Center, said he wasn’t at all surprised by the
news, but that it guarantees Russia’s future in the country. "This
basically is a permanent treaty. It means that Russia will remain on
the territory of Abkhazia as a military presence,” said Malashenko.
There are currently 4,000 Russian
military servicemen stationed in Abkhazia, Tuzhba said, but when asked
how this will change with the establishment of a base and a joint
ground force, he declined to comment. "I think the contingent will be
increased if it becomes necessary, but there is no need at the moment,
so the military contingent is not increasing,” he said.
Both Medvedev and Bagapsh were full of
warm rhetoric during their press conference and keen to use weak points
in cooperation as building blocks in their relationship. While for
instance admitting that the $130 million bilateral trade between
Abkhazia and Russia is somewhat paltry, Medvedev said "it is only the
beginning, the first phase in developed trade links and the starting
point for further work.” In fact the two leaders hope to sign in a
further 22 deals to expand cooperation, they said. Bagapsh even
revealed that Abkhaz railways will soon come under the full management
of the Russian Railways company.
So is Abkhazia happily slipping from
shaky pseudo-independence, unrecognized by the vast majority of the
international community, into increasing dependence on Russia? Although
this appears to be the only way to interpret the events of Wednesday,
it would be misleading to see Bagapsh as a Moscow puppet, said Sergey
Markedonov, an independent political analyst and expert on the
Caucasus. This has been clear, he said, since Bagapsh won Abkhazia’s
presidential elections in 2004, despite the Kremlin directly backing
his rival. But the trouble for Bagapsh at the moment is that he has no
other option, said Markedonov: "if five or six European countries did
support Abkhazia, then maybe Bagapsh would favor European integration.”
"[Abkhazia] is not going to beg anyone
to recognize it,” Bagapsh said on Tuesday. So far Russia has kindly
undertaken the job of lobbying for Abkhazia’s "legitimacy.” But it was
a dubious amount of legitimacy that was bestowed upon Abkhazia’s
sovereignty when Moscow coaxed Nauru, an island of 11,000 people, into
recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia in return for $50 million (150
million rubles) of humanitarian aid.
These additions are bound to do little
to change Abkhazia’s situation, so does Sukhumi have to continue fully
relying on Moscow? Abkhazia might find an alternative source of support
in Ankara. Several analysts suggest that Turkey may come to recognize
Abkhazia’s independence because of its large Abkhaz diaspora. "Turkey
is ready to establish special relations with Abkhazia. I don’t know if
they will recognize Abkhazia next year, but nonetheless they recognize
the special position of Abkhazia,” said Malashenko.
To that extent, NATO members and
Georgia are not the only countries to be wary of Russia expanding its
military presence in Abkhazia. "I think Turkey is disappointed with
this,” said Malashenko. Turkey has recently become increasingly
influential in the Black Sea region. "The Kremlin sees Turkey as a big
rival as far as all conflicts and problems in the region are concerned.
Traditionally, Russia has played the role of mediator in the ‘frozen
conflict’ of Nagorny Karabakh, but now Turkey is getting more
involved,” he said. Whether Turkey’s hand could drag Abkhazia out of
its total dependence on Russia is, however, still unclear.
Source: Russia Profile
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