Abkhazia: what to expect in the next 4 years
2010-02-12 13:53
Tomorrow
Abkhazia's State Philarmonic Hall will host President Sergey Bagapsh's
second inauguration. Representatives of the Russian president's
administration and Russian Central Election Commission as well as
guests from republics of North Caucasus, Transdniestria, South Ossetia
and members of Abkhaz diaspora in Turkey, ambassadors of Nicaragua,
Venezuela and Russia are expected to come to the Abkhaz capital.
GeorgiaTimes correspondent talked to Russian politologists about
Bagapsh's role in the life of Abkhazia, his political activities and
prospects of Sukhum-Moscow and Sukhum-Tbilisi relations.
As
we know December 12 2009 was the day of presidential election in
Abkhazia taking Sergey Bagapsh who outdistanced his rivals by a wide
margin to the second term in office. GeorgiaTimes correspondent asked Russian politologists
to evaluate the Abkhaz leader's contribution to the history of his
country and present their outlook on the young republic's development.
Vladimir Anokhin, vice president of Academy of Geopolitical Problems
Firstly,
he has long been at the head of the republic and is now beginning his
second term. Bagapsh's presidency was not a simple period. He managed
to suppress dissent and served his people throughout a very hard time.
Such things are never forgotten and are highly esteemed. His time in
office was marked with Russia's recognition of Abkhazia meaning that
his status as the republican leader grew to the international level
since country recognition is recognition of its leader most of all.
That means Russia trusts him. Over the period of his rule Sukhum's
position toward Moscow has grown more definite. Bagapsh gave quite a
lot to his people. Sure he made mistakes, and who doesn't? Anyway he is
predictable and as a neighbor of Russia he may do a lot of good to our
relations.
Sergey Demidenko, expert at Institute of Strategic Analysis and Evaluation
Speaking
about quasi-state establishments like Abkhazia and South Ossetia it is
unfortunately very difficult to fully analyze their leaders. The point
is these are not fully-fledged states, so activities of their leaders
are not fully valid either. It's evident that Bagapsh's foreign policy
is a success but all that directly depends on Russia's actions toward
Georgia. Yes, there is some progress, but locally. Abkhazia will be
Russia-oriented since without Moscow's support it will be hard to
retain sovereignty. In my view, on the whole Bagapsh's activity is
quite ordinary. He stood up for Abkhazia's independence but without
Russia's actions and Georgia's mistakes the situation could have been
absolutely different. It's a sort of palliative.
Valery Khomyakov, Director General of National Strategy Council
There
has been no change in Abkhazia's political line since Bagapsh's advent
to presidency. Unfortunately, Abkhazia makes no serious efforts in
tourism. Now the republican leadership relies fully on Russian aid
though in my opinion they must start acting independently, also in
terms of economy. That is why I hope during his second presidential
term Bagapsh will make efforts to raise republican business to its
feet. Abkhazia's involvement in Sochi Olympics must not be forgotten
either. So I wish the Abkhaz leader great success.
What are prospects for Abkhazia-Georgia interaction in next 4 years?
Vladimir Anokhin
Nothing
will change. Things will only get worse since Abkhazia is a cut-in
between Sochi and Georgia that will not abandon regular provocations
and aggravation of the situation before the Olympics. That is why the
role of Abkhazia is great: its position and decisiveness are crucial.
Sukhum also realizes that due organization of the Olympics will affect
Abkhazia's economy. As for Bagapsh's contacts with Georgian politicians
he will in no way deal with Saakashvili's confidants. Contacts with the
opposition are possible though the opposition has never favored
Abkhazia's recognition and it's hard to set up a dialogue as an
unrecognized republic.
Sergey Demidenko
In
this situation I see no prospects for Abkhaz-Georgian relations since
Saakashvili's position is quite definite. He sees Abkhazia as part of
Georgia and won't backtrack sticking to the policy of territorial
integrity. The trouble is he can't do anything. To set up contacts
between Sukhum and Tbilisi Georgia must reconsider its foreign policy
concept.
Valery Khomyakov
No
doubt contacts between Abkhazia and Georgia can be restarted but now
there is one obstacle here - it's Saakashvili. If new politicians rise
to power in Georgia and if they seek to satisfy interests of Georgian
people the countries will start negotiations. I don't think it
impossible that one day Georgia, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Ajaria and
Kartli might grow into a soft federation. So it would be silly to say
Abkhazia is completely cut off Georgia. There are so many things that
unite Abkhaz and Georgian nations.
What are the prospects for Abkhaz-Russian cooperation?
Vladimir Anokhin
To a great extent development of these relations will depend on Abkhaz
leaders. As is known investment attractiveness of any state depends on
its stability. Before other states enter Abkhazia's investment sphere,
Russia's moves in the territory of the young republic will be important
from economic point of view. I think main cooperation between our
states is in recreation sphere.
Sergey Demidenko
It's
obvious Abkhazia will continue to be Russia-oriented. So far the
republic has nothing to offer without Russian aid. It is unrecognized
by the international community, and that's the main thing.
International ties and large-scale economic activity are out of
question. That's why Russia-Abkhazia relations will get stronger both
in terms of economy and politics. All will depend on what we want to
get from Abkhazia, and what Abkhazia wants from us speaking about
Russia's investments into tourism and military cooperation. Now it is
important how ready Abkhazia is to turn its face to Russia.
Valery Khomyakov
Except
for joint efforts in preparations for Olympics and tourism, this is
culture, education, science. On the whole the scope of cooperation is
vast.
Ruslan Chigoevv
http://www.georgiatimes.info/en/interview/30673-1.html