Window on Eurasia: Might Turkey be the Next Country to Recognize Abkhazia?
Paul Goble
Vienna,
September 15 – Despite a year of intense effort, Moscow has secured
recognition for the breakaway republics of Abkhazia only from pariah
states like Nicaragua and Venezuela and then only by extending aid
packages to them so large that even Russian commentators have suggested
they represent little more than bribes.
But
now, there appears to be a chance that Turkey, despite denials by its
officials, might break the embargo against recognition because of
Ankara’s desire to play a greater role in the Caucasus region, its own
long-standing experience as the only country to recognize the Turkish
Republic of North Cyprus, and the influence of its own Abkhaz and
Circassian communities.
A
week ago in Tbilisi, Turkish Foreign Minister Akhmet Davutoglu said
that he intends to visit Abkhazia in order to “get acquainted with
[that republic] and attempt to regulate its relations with Georgia,”
thus potentially positioning Turkey to play a role paralleling the one
it has offered to play between Azerbaijan and Armenia (www.day.az/news/politics/171473.html).
Two
days later, Unal Cevikoz, deputy undersecretary of the Turkish foreign
ministry, visited Sukhumi and met with Abkhazian Foreign Minister
Sergey Shamba. While Turkish officials said that Ankara had informed
Georgia about the visit and had not changed its policy of supporting
the territorial integrity of Georgia, Cevikoz’s visit raised hopes in
Sukhumi.
In
a telephone interview, Shamba told Turkey’s “Hurriyet” newspaper that
“we certainly hope that Turkey will recognize Abkhazia,” adding that
“there are some positive signals” that this might happen in the wake of
the decisions of Nicaragua and Venezuela to do so (hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=is-turkey-to-recognize-break-away-abkhazia-2009-09-10).
According
to “Hurriyet” journalist Dondu Sariisik, an additional factor pushing
Ankara to explore opening a channel to Abkhazia was the seizure of the
Turkish vessel “Buket” in international waters by Georgian naval
forces, which accused the ship of being involved with smuggling oil to
Abkhazia.
Shamba
said that Abkhazia “wants Turkey to make its position clear that the
capture of a Turkish ship in international waters is not admissible. It
is in the interest of regional stability to prevent any escalation from
taking place.” (Davutoglu apparently did just that: Tbilisi released
the ship’s captain from prison as a result of the Turkish foreign
minister’s visit.)
“We’d
like to develop economic and humanitarian contact with Turkey,” Shamba
continued, including “the opening of communications and passenger
transport.” Abkhazia is especially interested in doing
so, he said, because there are some 500,000 Turkish citizens of
Abkhazian origin, many of whom “have been lobbying for the recognition”
of Abkhazia.
Burka
Ozugergin, spokesman for the Turkish foreign ministry, said despite the
visit of Cevikoz, “there is no policy change in the Caucasus,”
something that Shamba acknowledged when he said that “it is difficult
to say now” when Turkey might take that step, something Turkey’s
closest allies very much oppose.
But
Shamba said that he very much hopes that Turkey will play a mediating
role with Tbilisi concerning the Georgian shipping blockade and
indicated that he expects to visit Ankara to push this agenda. “We have
constant contacts at different levels,” he told “Hurriyet.” “If it is
needed we can visit. It is possible in the near future, but it’s not yet fixed on the agenda.”
Such
contacts, which Turkish officials say are entirely “natural” given
Turkey’s geographic and political position in the world and its own
Abkhaz population, do not necessarily point toward recognition, but
they do provide yet another avenue for Abkhazia to play on the
diplomatic scene, something that is likely to strengthen its cause.
And
while Moscow would not seem to be in a position to offer the kind of
financial incentive that would lead Ankara to recognize Abkhazia, the
Russian government could dangle another possibility: a shift in
Russia’s position on North Cyprus, which one Russian analyst on Friday
called “the elder brother of Abkhazia” (www.polit.ru/analytics/2009/09/11/turkey.html).
Any
such moves on the political chessboard of the South Caucasus seem
extremely implausible – but perhaps no more implausible than Turkey’s
rapprochement with Armenia, a development that has not only reordered
relations in that region but underscored Ankara’s new interest in
playing a broader and more independent role there.
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