RFE/RL: One Year After 'Independence,' Abkhazia And South Ossetia In Legal Gray Zone
posted by circassiankama on September, 2009 as Abkhazia
One Year After 'Independence,' Abkhazia And South Ossetia In Legal Gray Zone
Tskhinvali residents celebrate the first anniversary of Russia's recognition of South Ossetia's independence.
August 26, 2009
By Brian Whitmore
One Turkish-operated ship was bound for Abkhazia carrying a supply of
fuel. Another vessel was departing for Turkey with a cargo of scrap
metal. Both were seized by Georgia's coast guard last week for
violating a ban on trade with its breakaway territory.
The
incidents, which sparked howls of protest from Sukhumi, illustrate the
ambiguous legal gray zone Abkhazia finds itself in one year after
winning coveted recognition of its independence by Russia.
It
was just weeks after fighting a bitter five-day war with Georgia last
summer that Russia shocked the world by recognizing the separatist
regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. Moscow's
move infuriated Tbilisi and sparked jubilation in Tskhinvali and
Sukhumi. That joy grew muted, however, when no other country -- save
Nicaragua -- followed suit.
Today the two provinces find
themselves in an uneasy limbo -- unrecognized by nearly the whole
world, de jure part of Georgia, de facto out of Tbilisi's control, and
in reality sliding deeper and deeper into Russia's grip.
And analysts say this uneasy stalemate is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
"It
can last as long as Cyprus, it can last as long as Taiwan. I don't see
these territories returning to Georgia with any great ease, and the
more they are separate from Georgia, the more they are going to grow
apart," says Stephen Jones, a professor of International Relations at
Mount Holyoke College and the author of several books on Georgia.
"I don't see any resolution in the midterm or even the long term."
Tightening Moscow's Grip
Despite pressure from the West, Georgians expelled from Abkhazia and South Ossetia appear unlikely to return soon.
There
is a deep undercurrent of anti-Georgian sentiment in both regions,
fueled by memories of last year's war and the civil wars of the early
1990s, and aggravated by hostile rhetoric in the state-controlled
Russian media. Analysts say their return to Tbilisi's control is highly
unlikely, if not completely out of the question.
Likewise, the
international community's policy of nonrecognition of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia, staunchly backed by the United States and the European
Union, is unlikely to change in the near term.
Nor is it
necessarily clear that Russia craves widespread international
recognition. The longer this ambiguous status quo persists, analysts
say, the more Moscow can consolidate its control over the territories.
"The
war didn't change everything, but it did change some things. And one of
the things that it changed is that these territories are, in real ways,
much more part of Russia than they were a year ago," says Lincoln
Mitchell, a professor of international politics at Columbia University
and author of the book "Uncertain Democracy: U.S. Foreign Policy and
Georgia's Rose Revolution."
"To leave it and just do nothing kind of facilitates Russian possession of them."
Russia
has indeed been tightening its grip. Officially, Moscow says it has
7,600 troops in Abkhazia and South Ossetia combined, although
independent military analysts say the true figure is closer to 10,000.
Moscow
has also announced plans to build a naval base in Abkhazia's port of
Ochamchire, close to the cease-fire line separating Abkhazia from
Georgia proper. Other bases are planned in Gudauta in Abkhazia and in
Akhalgori in South Ossetia.
Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh has also agreed to grant Russia control over Abkhazia's borders, airport, and railway system.
And
during a visit to Abkhazia on August 12, Russian Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin pledged 15 billion rubles (about $460 million) from
Moscow to beef up Abkhazia's defenses -- including the construction of
Russian bases and securing Abkhazia's de facto border with Georgia.
Russia
has also strengthened its hold by paying pensions in Abkhazia and South
Ossetia and by issuing passports to residents of the territories.
A Pyrrhic Victory?
To
mark the first anniversary of Russia's recognition on August 26,
Russian and South Ossetian officials plan to unveil a new housing
settlement on the outskirts of Tskhinvali. The settlement, called the
Moscow District, was built on what was previously a Georgian village
until its residents were driven out during last summer's war.
Russian border guards continue to patrol the Abkhaz and South Ossetian borders with Georgia.
Mitchell
points out, however, that while Moscow may appear to be the winner in
the short term, Russia's gains in the South Caucasus also came with
great diplomatic costs -- particularly in its "near abroad," where it
was counting on a greater show of unity.
"You can't say
'[Russia's] recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia...' without, one
breath later, saying, '...which is not shared by any other state except
for Nicaragua.' That is clearly a diplomatic defeat for Russia. It
reveals a Russia that is more isolated than Russia would want to let
on," Mitchell says.
"Can you imagine making a decision to
recognize a state and then look around and see that nobody is behind
you? Russia really does look bad because of that."
Mitchell adds
that Moscow's inability to cajole usually pliant former Soviet states
like Belarus to recognize the breakaway regions exposes Russia's
ambitions to reassert its control over the former Soviet space as
hollow.
"We are supposed to be scared of Russia reuniting the USSR," Mitchell says.
"Well,
if Tajikistan and Belarus can't even recognize Abkhazia and South
Ossetia, then the ability of Russia to do that -- and the fear we
should have of that -- perhaps isn't as great as people in Moscow would
like us to think."
Copying Kosovo
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, meanwhile, have taken dramatically different approaches to their independence.
Officials
in Abkhazia, which aspires to use its Black Sea coast to attract
tourists, say they take their purported statehood seriously and are
determined not to become a de facto Russian colony. Impoverished and
landlocked South Ossetia, on the other hand, has made it clear that its
long-term goal is eventual unification with Russia's North Ossetia
region.
Russia has long pointed to Kosovo's February 2008
declaration of independence from Serbia -- in the face of strenuous
objections from Belgrade and Moscow -- to justify its recognition of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Jones, however, rejects the comparison with Kosovo, which has thus far been recognized by 62 countries.
"There
was a long international presence in Kosovo where they were attempting
to build a democratic state and put in place measures that would
protect ethnic minorities in Kosovo, namely the Serbs," Jones says.
"In
the case of [Abkhazia and] South Ossetia, of course, the ethnic
minority, in this case Georgians, were not protected at all, they were
expelled. Without that international presence...and the attempts to
create a democratic state...it doesn't look like Kosovo at all. It
looks more like an annexation." RFE/RL's Georgian Service contributed to this report
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