Unpublished
documents produced by the European Union commission that investigated
the conflict between Georgia and Moscow assign much of the blame to
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. But the Kremlin and Ossetian
militias are also partly responsible.
From her office on Avenue de la Paix, Swiss diplomat Heidi
Tagliavini, 58, looks out onto the botanical gardens in peaceful
Geneva. The view offers a welcome respite from the stacks of documents
on her desk, which deal exclusively with war and war blame. They
contain the responses, from the conflicting parties in the Caucasus
region -- Russia, Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia -- to a European
Union investigative commission conducting a probe of the cause of the
five-day war last August. The documents also include reports on the EU
commission's trips to Moscow, the Georgian capital Tbilisi and the
capitals of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, dossiers assembled by experts
and the transcripts of interviews of diplomats, military officials and
civilian victims of the war.
The Caucasus expert, nicknamed "Madame Courage" by the Zurich-based Swiss daily Neue Zürcher Zeitung,
is considered a specialist on sensitive diplomatic matters. The
Caucasus issue is the most difficult challenge she has faced to date.
The final report by the commission she heads must be submitted to the
EU Council of Ministers by late July. In the report, Tagliavini is
expected to explain how, in August 2008, a long-smoldering regional
conflict over the breakaway Georgia province of South Ossetia could
suddenly have escalated into a war between Georgia and its much more
powerful neighbor, Russia. Who is to blame for the most serious
confrontation between East and West since the end of the Cold War?
In addition to having a budget of €1.6 million ($2.2 million) at her
disposal, Tagliavini can draw on the expertise of two deputies, 10
specialists, military officials, political scientists, historians and
international law experts.
Much hinges on the conclusions her commission will reach. Is
Georgia, a former Soviet republic, a serious candidate for membership
in NATO, or is the country in the hands of a reckless gambler? Did the
Russian leadership simply defend South Ossetia, an ally seeking
independence from Georgia, against a Georgian attack? Or did Russia
spark a global crisis when its troops occupied parts of Georgia for a
short period of time?
The confidential investigative commission documents, which SPIEGEL has
obtained, show that the task of assigning blame for the conflict has
been as much of a challenge for the commission members as it has for
the international community. However, a majority of members tend to
arrive at the assessment that Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili
started the war by attacking South Ossetia on August 7, 2008. The facts
assembled on Tagliavini's desk refute Saakashvili's claim that his
country became the innocent victim of "Russian aggression" on that day.
In summarizing the military fiasco, commission member Christopher
Langton, a retired British Army colonel, claims: "Georgia's dream is
shattered, but the country can only blame itself for that."
Another commission member, Bruno Coppieter, a political scientist
from Brussels, even speculates whether the Georgian government may have
had outside help in its endeavor. "The support of Saakashvili by the
West, especially military support," Coppieter writes, "inadvertently
promoted Georgia's collision course."
Berlin journalist Jörg Himmelreich, who is also a member of the
German Marshall Fund of the United States, disagrees. He advocates
Georgia's acceptance into NATO and condones the "brief Georgian
occupation of the South Ossetia capital Tskhinvali" with the argument
that Georgian President Saakashvili faced "great pressure from within
his own population to produce results," and to deliver on a promise he
had made several times to achieve "reunification" with the separatist
republic.
Self-Defense?
Himmelreich sharply condemns Russia's actions as "aggression" and a
"violation of international law." Commission member Otto Luchterhandt,
a Hamburg international law expert, reaches a more differentiated
assessment. He argues that because the Georgians attacked a base used
by Russian peacekeeping forces in the South Ossetian provincial capital
Tskhinvali, Russia can invoke the right of self-defense under Article
51 of the United Nations Charter.
The Russian troops were stationed in South Ossetia as a result of a
1992 agreement, binding under international law, between Russia and
Georgia. Georgia's attack, Luchterhandt argues, constitutes a breach of
this agreement, thereby giving Russia the right to intervene.
Nevertheless, he writes, the Kremlin, with its overwhelming
intervention in western Georgia, can be accused of "violating the
principle of proportionality."
The experts found no evidence to support claims by the Georgian
president, which he also mentioned in an interview with SPIEGEL, that a
Russian column of 150 tanks had advanced into South Ossetia on the
evening of Aug. 7. According to the commission's findings, the Russian
army didn't enter South Ossetia until August 8.
Commission members note, on the other hand, that Saakashvili had
already amassed 12,000 troops and 75 tanks on the border with South
Ossetia on the morning of Aug. 7. In their research, they uncovered
remarks by the Georgian president that demonstrate that he had long
flirted with a military solution to the South Ossetian problem. "If you
ask any Georgian soldier why he is serving in the armed forces, each of
them will respond: 'To reestablish Georgia's territorial integrity,'"
Saakashvili said in a television address on May 25, 2004.
Senior officials at the German Foreign Ministry in Berlin know that
then German Ambassador Uwe Schramm warned in his reports of
Saakashvili's penchant towards war. Schramm is now Tagliavini's deputy
on the investigative commission.
When the five-day war began, Georgian General Mamuka Kurashvili said
on television that his country would "reestablish constitutional order
in the entire region." He may have been quoting from Georgian order No.
2, dated August 7. To date, the Georgians have not submitted a copy of
this key document to the commission as requested, nor have they turned
over copies of other official orders. The commission interprets these
omissions as a sort of admission of guilt.
The commission members generally agree, however, that the Georgians
and Russians alike violated the provision in the Geneva Convention for
the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War. Both armies, for
example, used cluster bombs, which distribute explosives over a wide
area, killing several civilians and wounding many more. Georgia admits
to having used the weapons, while Russia denies the charges.
"War Crimes"
The commission also cited many serious attacks on Georgian civilians
by South Ossetia militias. According to a report for the commission by
Swiss legal expert Théo Boutruche, militia members, most of them young
men, looted and burned down several villages inhabited by Georgians,
beat civilians and murdered more than a dozen Georgians. According to
the Hague Convention on Land Warfare, the Russian occupying force was
obligated to reestablish public order. But it did almost nothing to
prevent the atrocities, which a commission dossier classifies as "war
crimes."
It is now up to the Swiss head of the commission to prepare the
final version of the report, and there are no plans to include
dissenting opinions. However, Tagliavini has a reputation for avoiding
harsh judgments against any party to a conflict. Commission members
predict that she will likely integrate Himmelreich's position into the
final report, keeping the door open for Georgia to join the Western
defense alliance, despite its hot-headed president. In early June,
Saakashvili boasted that his country was still at war with its Russian
"enemy."
Another question will likely remain unanswered: What role did the
United States, the sole remaining superpower, play in the Georgian
conflict? For years, the government of former President George W. Bush
provided Georgia with extensive military aid, which included sending
about 150 military trainers to the country.
Nevertheless, a number of commission members are curious to know
what John Tefft, the US ambassador in Tbilisi and a former advisor at
the National War College in Washington, knew about Saakashvili's
marching orders. One question they would like to ask is why no one at
the US State Department took a call from Russian Deputy Foreign
Minister Grigory Karasin when the war broke out in the early morning
hours of August 8 -- when it was afternoon in Washington.
Other commission members would be interested in talking to Daniel
Fried, the assistant secretary of state responsible for Georgia at the
time. Fried recently told a German foreign policy expert privately that
Saakashvili "went out of control" in August.
But Tagliavini's team won't be questioning any Americans. According
to one member of the commission, "our director and the EU apparently
lack the courage" to take that step.