From: MSN Nicknamepsychoteddybear24  (Original Message)    Sent: 11/24/2006 9:55 AM
ABKHAZ WARY OF GEORGIA'S WESTERN DRIVE

The breakaway republic fears the implications of Georgia's NATO ambitions.

By Inal Khashig in Sukhum

Political leaders in Abkhazia view the prospect of Georgia entering NATO with
deep anxiety, with government officials saying such a move would be a grave
threat to their own hopes of achieving independence, and warning that it could
spur them to move even closer to Russia.

"Above all, we see ourselves as a country allied with Russia," said Sergei
Shamba, foreign minister of the unrecognised republic. "It's well known that
NATO expansion in our region runs counter to Russia's interests.

"If Georgia joins the North Atlantic Alliance, recognition of Abkhaz
independence will become more difficult since the kind of support Georgia will
get from NATO members will be of a different order; it will carry more weight."

Abkhaz officials say that in such an eventuality they would be forced to take
counter-measures, which many believe would mean closer integration with the
Russia state.

"We need to agree a legal format for the relationship between Abkhazia and
Russia before this decision [Georgian membership of NATO] is taken," said
Astamur Tania, one of the leaders of the Abkhaz opposition. "The [Abkhaz]
parliament recently passed a resolution on the matter, describing it as an
'associate relationship' between Abkhazia and Russia."

Tania was formerly a political advisor to Abkhazia's first president Vladislav
Ardzinba, under whose leadership the concept of an "association" with Moscow
first took shape.

Tania was critical of Tbilisi's "intensified dialogue" with NATO, saying, "This
has made Georgia think that its foreign policy enjoys the full backing of NATO
members. There is another factor to be considered: with NATO support, Georgia
will upgrade its armed forces, and there's no guarantee that these units won't
be used against Abkhazia or South Ossetia."

Citing the case of Kosovo, which many believe will be granted independence next
year without the consent of its former parent state, Serbia, Tania expressed
fears that Georgia would try to preempt that decision by ensuring that its
claims to Abkhazia and South Ossetia were resolved in its favour beforehand. He
warned that in the case of Abkhazia, "there's a great danger that the resolution
[sought by Georgia] will be a military one".

"Georgia is in a hurry to speed up its admission to NATO," said Natella Akaba, a
former member of Abkhazia's parliament. "Tbilisi is clearly worried that the
mechanism that will lead to recognition for Kosovo has been activated. The
Georgian authorities are well aware that once Kosovo is recognised, attitudes
towards other unrecognised states will change drastically, and Abkhazia's
chances [of full independence] will dramatically increase."

The authorities in Sukhum maintain that for them, international recognition is
not contingent on the outcome in Kosovo, since they argue that Abkhazia has a
stronger legal and historical claim to sovereignty. But they are keeping a close
eye on developments in the Balkans, and the possible response from Tbilisi.

Stanislav Lakoba, secretary of Abkhazia's Security Council, says he does not
expect Georgia to begin the procedure of joining NATO until 2008 at the
earliest.

Tamaz Ketsba, director of the non-government group Civil Society-Man of the
Future, argued that Georgia was facing a "problem of time" with the prospect of
recognition for Kosovo set against its own NATO ambitions.

This, he warned, might force the Georgian to seize the initiative through
military action. "Georgia might be given an easy ride and admitted to the
alliance despite its unresolved conflicts, but once that happens, NATO
members... are unlikely to give their assent to a military operation in Abkhazia
or South Ossetia," said Ketsba. "Given Russia's political interests in the
region, there will be no green light for any military operation."

To ward off a possible Georgian offensive, the Abkhaz army has been conducting
military exercises almost every month, involving both regular units and
reservists, most of them veterans of the 1992-93 war.

"It's all a matter of motivation," said Deputy Defence Minister Merab Kishmaria.
"Unlike the Georgians, we have nowhere to retreat to - the Abkhaz have no other
homeland than this. I assure you that despite our limited resources, we won't
give in to the Georgians. All the more so since we have experienced a victorious
war with Georgia - that gives us heart, and could demoralise the enemy."

Akaba was the only Abkhaz commentator interviewed by IWPR who took the view that
Sukhum could live with Georgia's accession to NATO.

"If NATO takes a decision based on principle to admit Georgia without Abkhazia
and South Ossetia, it could have a stabilising effect in the region," she said.
"But NATO is unlikely to make such a move."

Inal Khashig is editor of Chegemskaya Pravda newspaper in Abkhazia and co-editor
of Panorama, IWPR's Caucasian newspaper.