From: MSN Nicknamepsychoteddybear24 (Original Message) Sent: 12/15/2006 9:36 AM
ABKHAZ PREMIER RESPONDS TO CRITICISM. At an emergency congress in
Sukhum(i) on November 29, the opposition Forum of National Unity
established early last year (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," February
11, 2005) harshly criticized the Abkhaz government headed by Prime
Minister Aleksandr Ankvab for its "destructive political role" and
inability to draft and implement an effective program of action. The
congress, which was attended by Vice President Raul Khadjimba, former
Deputy Prime Minister Anri Djergenia, and several parliament
deputies, asked President Sergei Bagapsh to form a new government
capable of addressing the problems Abkhazia faces, while commending
Bagapsh's efforts to secure international recognition for the
unrecognized republic and to establish associate membership of the
Russian Federation. In a statement on November 30, Bagapsh rejected
the forum's call to dismiss the government, arguing that while
the opposition is entitled to call attention to the government's
mistakes, it should not gratuitously insult those in power (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," December 1, 2006).
Ankvab for his part admitted on December 7 to Apsnypress that
"grounds exist to criticize us." But at the same time, he affirmed
that "there is no crisis, either economic or political," and he
branded the forum's demand to sack the entire cabinet as "a
clumsy attempt to rehabilitate themselves" by political forces
defeated in the 2004-2005 presidential election. Ankvab further
accused the opposition of refusing to acknowledge any "positive
changes" resulting from Bagapsh's advent to power in January 2005
and of trying to offload on to the new leadership responsibility for
the problems it bequeathed to them. The political party Aytayra too
lambasted the republic's previous leadership, accusing it in a
statement carried by apsny.ru on December 12 of seeking not to form a
constructive opposition but to split the present leadership with the
express objective of returning to power.
Ankvab presented a run-down of those problems in March 2005,
just weeks after Bagapsh named him to head the government. They
include Abkhazia's chronic economic dependence on Russia; the
extent to which "criminal elements" have secured control over large
sectors of the economy; and a growing problem with crime and drug
addition (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," April 8, 2005). This year,
those problems were compounded by the Georgian government's
dispatch of troops in late July to the Kodori Gorge in an
unsuccessful attempt to apprehend the region's former governor,
Emzar Kvitsiani. Ankvab was quoted by Apsnypress on November 9 as
admitting that the Georgian incursion necessitated increased defense
spending and also negatively impacted on the number of Russian
tourists who visited Abkhazia this summer. Nonetheless, possibly in a
reflection that Russia still considers it expedient to subsidize
Abkhazia, the balanced draft budget that the government endorsed in
early November and sent to Bagapsh for his approval sets both
revenues and expenditures at 1.236 billion rubles ($47.2 million),
which is 345 million rubles more than in 2006, according to
Apsnypress on December 1. That increase will be partly used to raise
the salaries of government officials by 30 percent on January 1,
2007.
It is not clear whether the Forum's demand that Bagapsh
dismiss the entire government heralds the beginning of the campaign
for next year's local and parliamentary elections, scheduled for
February 11 and March 4 respectively, or whether in fact it is
directed against just one minister. The Forum's leaders include
Vice President Khadjimba, whom Moscow unequivocally backed in the
2004-2005 election marathon that Bagapsh eventually won (see "RFE/RL
Caucasus Report," October 14, November 18 and December 10, 2004). And
as noted above, the Forum's criticism of the government was
offset by an expression of approval and support for Bagapsh's
efforts to secure recognition of Abkhazia's independence and
associate relations with the Russian Federation. The Forum issued an
analogous statement of support for Bagapsh in the wake of the
Georgian incursion into the Kodori Gorge in late July (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," July 31, 2006).
If one assumes that the Forum is directed from Moscow as a
means of exerting pressure on Bagapsh, then its leaders, and their
Moscow contacts, may be wary of Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba.
Western scholars who have visited Abkhazia in recent years speak with
admiration and respect of Shamba's intelligence, moderate
political position, and his encyclopedic grasp of the range of models
available for resolving the conflict. Moreover, Shamba succeeded in
establishing a good working relationship first with Tbilisi's
pointman for the Abkhaz conflict, Irakli Alasania, and then with U.S.
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza. Bryza has traveled
to Sukhum(i) twice this year, in June and November, for talks with
Bagapsh and Shamba, whom he referred to during the second visit as
"my friend" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," June 20 and November 20, 2006).
The Forum may thus have a vested interest in excluding from the
conflict settlement process a figure who is regarded by both
Washington and moderates in Tbilisi as an acceptable negotiating
partner. (Liz Fuller)