From: MSN Nicknamepsychoteddybear24  (Original Message)    Sent: 8/4/2006 12:39 AM
THE KODORI OPERATION: SMALL VICTORIOUS INTERVENTION OR INCONCLUSIVE
SHOW OF FORCE? Georgian officials have sought to present last
week's incursion into the Kodori Gorge as a major territorial
gain. But such claims gloss over the Georgian failure to apprehend
former Kodori Governor Emzar Kvitsiani, whose defiance of the
Georgian authorities served as the catalyst for what Tbilisi claims
was simply a police operation.
Speaking on national television on July 28, Georgian
President Mikheil Saakashvili said that Georgia now "directly
controls a very important strategic part of the territory of
Abkhazia," and will "establish Georgian jurisdiction and
constitutional order in the heart" of that breakaway region. Georgian
Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili said the same day that
"practically the whole of the gorge is under the control of the
police."
Such claims are, however, an exaggeration, insofar as Georgia
has merely extended its control over the upper reaches of the gorge
-- formerly a no-man's-land controlled by Kvitsiani's
Monadire (Hunter) militia -- as far as the border between Abkhazia
and the rest of Georgia.
Kristian Bzhania, spokesman for Abkhaz President Sergei
Bagapsh, derided the Georgian claims, telling regnum.ru that "we have
another word for what Saakashvili calls the heart." Bagapsh himself
warned when the Georgian forces first entered Kodori that he would
mobilize his army if the Georgian contingent actually advanced onto
Abkhaz territory.
Saakashvili and Okruashvili praised the conduct of the Kodori
operation, which was supervised by Okruashvili and Interior Minister
Vano Merabishvili personally as both army and Interior Ministry
troops took part. (Okruashvili subsequently clarified the division of
responsibilities between the Defense and the Interior ministries,
saying that the latter carried out the operation and the armed forces
merely provided "logistical support," according to "Novye izvestia,"
as quoted on August 1 by apsny.ru.)
U.S. military personnel in Georgia described the Georgian
troops' performance to one Washington analyst as less than
stellar, noting that morale among the Georgian servicemen was not
good and that at one point the operation was halted due to "inclement
weather conditions." The Russian newspaper "Vedomosti" on July 28
likewise quoted unnamed "experts" as saying the Georgian military is
not yet professional enough to conduct large-scale operations.
Former Kodori Governor Kvitsiani, who managed to evade the
advancing Georgian troops and whose current whereabouts are unknown,
was particularly scathing. He said in video footage broadcast on July
30 by the independent Georgian television channel Imedi that claims
his fighters were surrounded were "laughable." Kvitsiani claimed that
the Georgian troops "do not know the area and cannot read maps.... We
have a good army in Georgia. They are really good boys...but the
commander...is an idiot. He knows nothing about military strategy."
Russian experts have pointed out that even if, as Abkhaz
presidential envoy to Gali Raion Ruslan Kishmaria has alleged,
Georgia is deploying more troops to the upper reaches of the Kodori
gorge with the aim of advancing into the lower reaches and attacking
Sukhum, the Abkhaz capital, such an offensive is fraught with risk.
"Izvestia" on August 1 quoted an unnamed Russian general as saying
that "starting a campaign in Kodori in summer would be suicidal." He
pointed out that the mountains are covered in foliage, providing the
enemy with excellent cover, and that it would be virtually impossible
to use armor or heavy artillery. A Russian military analyst similarly
noted that at one point the gorge narrows to the point that two
platoons of Abkhaz special forces could easily block any further
Georgian advance.
Georgian First Deputy Foreign Minister Valeri Chechelashvili
said on July 31, however, that Tbilisi has no intention of using
Kodori as a bridgehead to advance further into Abkhazia. And Abkhaz
President Bagapsh apparently sees no danger of such an advance at
this point. Bagapsh told volunteers from the North Caucasus on August
1 that there is no need at this juncture to mobilize the entire male
population of Abkhazia, Caucasus Press reported, although he added
that "there are people within the Georgian government whose ambitions
are so high they are incapable of rational decisions."
But Abkhaz Defense Minister Lieutenant General Sultan
Sosnaliyev told Interfax on August 1 that Tbilisi is secretly
replacing the Interior Ministry troops deployed to Kodori with
regular military personnel -- a claim that has not been verified.
The Russian Foreign Ministry released a statement on July 31
demanding the immediate withdrawal of all Georgian forces from
Kodori. That statement warned that the Georgian authorities'
actions risk fueling tensions and provoking an unanticipated
"confrontation."
Meanwhile, Okruashvili responded on July 31 to Russian
Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov's demand for international
monitoring of the Georgian troops in Kodori by saying Tbilisi would
consent only after international military experts have been allowed
to inspect the former Russian military base in Gudauta, Abkhazia.
Under an agreement signed in November 1999, Moscow undertook to
withdraw its troops and materiel from that base by July 1, 2001, but
the Georgian government claims that some Russian personnel are still
there. Whether Okruashvili is trying to buy time in order to prepare
for a new offensive is as yet unclear. (Liz Fuller)