From: MSN Nicknamepsychoteddybear24  (Original Message)    Sent: 6/23/2006 1:49 PM
KEY ABKHAZ MEDIATOR NOMINATED AS GEORGIA'S UN ENVOY. On June 12,
President Mikheil Saakashvili submitted to parliament his nomination
of Irakli Alasania to succeed Revaz Adamia as Georgia's envoy to
the UN. Alasania, 32, is a former chairman of the Tbilisi-based
Abkhaz government in exile and Saakashvili's special aide for
talks with the Abkhaz leadership on ways to resolve the Abkhaz
conflict. Even if the parliament confirms his nomination for the UN
post, he will retain his Abkhaz responsibilities, according to Civil
Georgia on June 12.
Some observers and political figures, however, have
questioned the wisdom of sending Alasania to New York. Civil Georgia
on June 13 quoted opposition parliamentarian Giorgi Tsagareishvili
(Industrialists) as saying "Alasania was the only shining light in
the current government," while independent analyst Giorgi Khelashvili
similarly commented that "I think Alasania would be much more useful
here." Alasania's proposed transfer to the UN is all the more
surprising in light of the good working relations he has established
with leading Abkhaz officials, in particular Sergei Shamba, foreign
minister of the unrecognized Republic of Abkhazia. Civil Georgia on
June 13 quoted Shamba as having said at the time Alasania's
appointment as Saakashvili's aide was made public that, "We have
very positive impressions [of Alasania.] He is a person with whom it
is possible to talk."
It is largely as a result of that rapport that the two sides
agreed to resume sessions, suspended in January 2002, of the
Coordinating Council established under the aegis of the UN. On the
sidelines of a council session in Tbilisi in May, Alasania and Shamba
discussed the crucial issue of signing an agreement on the
nonresumption of hostilities, but Alasania subsequently told RFE/RL
that "we need more time" to resolve that issue. UN Secretary-General
Kofi Annan in his most recent (March 17) report on Abkhazia to the UN
Security Council noted that the so-called Group of Friends of the UN
Secretary-General urged the two sides during talks in Geneva in early
February to sign such a document, which Abkhazia wants. But
Alasania's most recent draft peace plan for Abkhazia, unveiled
earlier this month, does not provide for any such agreement, although
the third of its five articles affirms Tbilisi's readiness to
abide by earlier agreements on the nonresumption of hostilities. That
is presumably a reference to the accord signed in the wake of the
abortive incursion by Georgian guerrillas into Abkhazia eight years
ago (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," May 26, 1998).
At the same May meeting on the Coordinating Council, Shamba
formally presented to the Georgian side Abkhaz President Sergei
Bagapsh's new proposals for resolving the conflict, entitled "Key
to the Future" (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," May 12, 2006).
Initially, Georgian officials, including Alasania, said they thought
it might prove possible to reach a compromise settlement comprising a
synthesis of the two plans. But Shamba announced that Abkhazia has
rejected the Georgian draft, on the grounds that it does not contain
a single proposal acceptable to the Abkhaz side (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," June 2, 2006). Despite that rejection, Shamba told
RFE/RL's Georgian Service on June 19 that the two sides have
tried actively over the past year to narrow the differences between
them, and that he believes a rapprochement is possible, but that this
is "a complicated process" that will take some time. That process,
Shamba continued, has already yielded "good results," but the
culmination is "not yet in sight."
The question thus arises: if, as Georgian President Mikheil
Saakashvili has repeatedly said, he wants a peaceful solution to the
Abkhaz (and South Ossetian) conflicts as soon as possible, why render
more difficult the participation in the search for such a settlement
of Alasania, whose flexibility, moderate stance (despite the fact
that his own father was killed in the 1992-93 war) and dispassionate
approach resonated so well with the Abkhaz side? One possible
explanation is that in acknowledgement of Alasania's talents, and
the perception that unlike some senior officials he has not been
implicated in corruption, Saakashvili is grooming him for a more
senior position in which exposure to international politics would
prove an asset.
Alternatively, as the "Georgian Times" recently hypothesized,
the Georgian leadership may be split into two camps over Abkhazia,
with Alasania representing the "doves" and Defense Minister Irakli
Okruashvili the "hawks." If that is indeed the case, Okruashvili may
have pressured Saakashvili to distance Alasania from the negotiating
process in the hope that it would reach a deadlock and thus bolster
the rational for a new military assault to bring Abkhazia back under
the control of the central Georgian government. Or, anticipating such
pressure from Okruashvili, Saakashvili may have chosen to send
Alasania abroad rather than have him implicated in the collapse of
talks on resolving the conflict peacefully and a possible new war.
Whether this week's visit to Sukhum and Tbilisi by U.S.
Assistant Deputy Secretary of State Matthew Bryza is intended to
strengthen the position of the "doves" is unclear. Bryza told
RFE/RL's Georgian Service on June 20 : "We are talking about
confidence-building measures, specific confidence-building measures
that can reduce tension; reduce the risk of something bad happening;
and lay the foundation of a peaceful settlement, frankly, that shows
the entire international community how responsible an actor Georgia
is, how committed Georgia is to a peaceful settlement, how important
it is for us to help Georgia maintain its territorial integrity."
(Liz Fuller)